Table 2.
Age-specific projected burden of pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, and their metabolic sequelae
| Incidence per 100,000 (95% confidence interval) | Years of life lost in thousands (95% confidence interval) | |||||||
| Year 2020 | Year 2030 | Year 2040 | Year 2050 | Year 2020 | Year 2030 | Year 2040 | Year 2050 | |
| Age <40 yr | ||||||||
| Pancreatitis | 36.9 (34.2 to 39.5) | 51.5 (47.6 to 55.4) | 66.2 (60.7 to 71.6) | 80.8 (73.7 to 87.9) | 0.3 (0.1 to 0.5) | 0.4 (0.1 to 0.7) | 0.5 (0.1 to 1.0) | 0.6 (0.0 to 1.2) |
| Pancreatic cancer | 0.4 (−0.1 to 0.9) | 0.3 (−0.4 to 1.0) | 0.3 (−0.7 to 1.3) | 0.2 (−1.1 to 1.5) | 0.1 (−0.2 to 0.3) | −0.1 (−0.5 to 0.3) | −0.2 (−0.8 to 0.4) | −0.3 (−1.1 to 0.5) |
| DEP | 3.3 (2.0 to 4.6) | 5.4 (3.4 to 7.4) | 7.6 (4.8 to 10.5) | 9.8 (6.0 to 13.5) | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| EPD | 0.8 (0.3 to 1.4) | 1.2 (0.3 to 2.0) | 1.5 (0.3 to 2.6) | 1.8 (0.3 to 3.3) | NE | NE | NE | NE |
| Age 40–64 yr | ||||||||
| Pancreatitis | 57.3 (53.7 to 61.0) | 79.5 (74.1 to 84.9) | 101.6 (94.1 to 109.1) | 123.7 (113.9 to 133.6) | 1.8 (1.4 to 2.2) | 2.5 (1.8 to 3.1) | 3.1 (2.1 to 4.0) | 3.7 (2.5 to 4.9) |
| Pancreatic cancer | 10.2 (8.6 to 11.9) | 12.7 (10.3 to 15.2) | 15.2 (11.8 to 18.7) | 17.8 (13.3 to 22.2) | 3.7 (2.8 to 4.5) | 5.0 (3.6 to 6.3) | 6.3 (4.3 to 8.2) | 7.6 (5 to 10.1) |
| DEP | 6.8 (4.9 to 8.7) | 10.0 (7.2 to 12.9) | 13.3 (9.2 to 17.4) | 16.6 (11.1 to 22.0) | 0.6 (0.4 to 0.8) | 1.0 (0.7 to 1.2) | 1.3 (0.9 to 1.7) | 1.6 (1.1 to 2.2) |
| EPD | 3.5 (2.6 to 4.4) | 4.8 (3.5 to 6.2) | 6.2 (4.2 to 8.1) | 7.5 (4.9 to 10.1) | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) | 0.6 (0.2 to 1.0) | 0.8 (0.2 to 1.4) | 1.0 (0.2 to 1.8) |
| Age 65+ yr | ||||||||
| Pancreatitis | 108.9 (98.8 to 119) | 129.4 (114.4 to 144.4) | 149.9 (129 to 170.8) | 170.4 (143.2 to 197.6) | 4.2 (3.8 to 4.5) | 6.2 (5.7 to 6.8) | 8.3 (7.5 to 9.1) | 10.4 (9.3 to 11.5) |
| Pancreatic cancer | 41.4 (32.3 to 50.5) | 38.2 (24.9 to 51.6) | 35.1 (16.4 to 53.8) | 31.9 (7.6 to 56.2) | 3.9 (3.5 to 4.2) | 4.9 (4.3 to 5.5) | 6.0 (5.1 to 6.8) | 7.0 (5.9 to 8.2) |
| DEP | 13.2 (4.5 to 21.9) | 15.6 (2.1 to 29.1) | 18.0 (−1.2 to 37.2) | 20.4 (−4.9 to 45.7) | 0.5 (0.3 to 0.8) | 0.8 (0.3 to 1.3) | 1.0 (0.3 to 1.7) | 1.3 (0.4 to 2.2) |
| EPD | 7.7 (5.9 to 9.5) | 10.5 (7.8 to 13.3) | 13.3 (9.4 to 17.3) | 16.1 (11.0 to 21.3) | 0.4 (0.4 to 0.5) | 0.7 (0.6 to 0.9) | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.3) | 1.3 (1.0 to 1.6) |
DEP, diabetes of the exocrine pancreas; EPD, exocrine pancreatic dysfunction; NE, nonestimable (because of the limited number of observations to fit model).