Table 2.
Easing of restrictions and recovery scenarios
| Faster easing | Slower easing | Global shocks | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | January | No shocks in the pre-COVID-19 period | ||
| February | ||||
| March | Full lockdown period over three weeks | Remittances & export demand decline from 1 March onwards | ||
| Q2 | April | |||
| May | Production losses from lockdown policies fall 30% | Production losses from lockdown policies fall 5% | ||
| June | ||||
| Q3 | July | Losses reduced by 90% (transport & sports by 50%) | Losses reduced by 50% (transport & sports by 70%) | External shocks reduced by 50% |
| August | ||||
| September | ||||
| Q4 | October | Losses reduced by 99% (transport & sports by 95%) | Losses reduced by 90% (transport & sports by 80%) | External shocks reduced 75% |
| November | ||||
| December |
Source Author’s compilation