Table 2. Parameter values used in simulation model.
Model parameter (unit) | Values used in individual simulations |
---|---|
Infection rate (per day) | 5.56 × 10 − 8, 1.67 × 10 − 8, 6.02 × 10 − 8, 2.28 × 10 − 7, 2.29 × 10 − 7 |
Recovery rate f (inverse of duration of natural infection) (per day) | 1/84, 1/160, 1/185, 1/240, 1/365 |
Treatment rate γ (inverse of time in days until patients first seek treatment) (per day) | 1/3, 1/12, 1/13, 1/52 |
Cure rate for gepotidacin treatment, assuming double dose (inverse of treatment duration, i.e. time over MIC) (per day) | 1.778 ( = 1/13.5h) |
Cure rate for ciprofloxacin treatment, assuming single dose (inverse of treatment duration) (per day) | 6 ( = 1/4h) |
Proportion of patients that return for second round treatment p | 1, 0.8, 0.6, 0.5 |
Mutation rate without treatment σb (substitutions per nt per day) | 3.12 × 10 − 9, 2.45 × 10 − 8 |
Mutation rate with treatment σt (substitutions per nt per day) | 3.12 × 10 − 9, 2.45 × 10 − 8, 4.9 × 10 − 8, 1.23 × 10 − 7, 2.45 × 10 − 7, 2.45 × 10 − 6, 2.45 × 10 − 5, 7.95 × 10 − 5, 9.66 × 10 − 4 |
Point-of-care test usage (%) | 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100 |
Total simulated population | 1.5 × 106 |
Initial number of infected individuals/equilibrium incidence rate | 22,000 |
Initial prevalence of parC D86N (%) | 0, 0.06, 0.18, 0.462, 0.669, 1.5, 2, 2.9, 3, 5.9, 6.5, 8.6, 13, 19.3, 38.6 |
Initial prevalence of gyrA A92T (%) | 0, 1 |
Initial prevalence of double mutant (parC D86N/gyrA A92T) (%) | 0 |
MIC: minimum inhibitory concentration.
All rates are per day. If more than one value is given, the whole range of values has been tested in different simulations. See Supplementary Material 2 for parameter combinations used in individual simulations. References and the basis of assumptions are included in the Supplementary Material 1, Supplementary Table 2.