Table 2. Epidemiology parameters used in the model for antimicrobial point-of-care test strategies.
| Variable | Percentage (%) | Number | Comments and references | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | W | MSW | MSM | W | MSW | |||||||||
| Base case value | Range (low, high) | Base case value | Range (low, high) | Base case value | Range (low, high) | Base case value | Range (low, high) | Base case value | Range (low, high) | Base case value | Range (low, high) | |||
| 1 | Initial clinic attendances | 56.4 | NA | 21.8 | NA | 21.8 | NA | 21,915 | NA | 8,488 | NA | 8,467 | NA | GUMCAD, 2015 [23] |
| 2 | Resistance to azithromycina | 4.7 | 3.3–6.1 | 2.7 | 1.9–3.5 | 5.3 | 3.7–6.9 | 1,030 | 723–1,337 | 229 | 161–297 | 449 | 313–584 | GRASP, 2017 [29] |
| 3 | Resistance to ceftriaxone | 0 | 0–0 | 0 | 0–0 | 0 | 0–0 | 0 | 0–0 | 0 | 0–0 | 0 | 0–0 | GRASP, 2017 [29] |
| 4 | Resistance to ciprofloxacinb | 36.2 | 25.3–47.1 | 20.1 | 14.1–26.1 | 32.5 | 22.8–42.3 | 7,933 | 5,544–10,322 | 1,706 | 1,197–2,215 | 2,752 | 1,930–3,582 | GRASP, 2017 [29] |
| 5 | Sensitivity of AMR POCT | 98 | 90–100 | 98 | 90–100 | 98 | 90–100 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | Assumption |
| 6 | Specificity of AMR POCT | 99 | 90–100 | 99 | 90–100 | 99 | 90–100 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | Assumption |
AMR: antimicrobial resistance; GUMCAD: genitourinary medicine clinical activity dataset; GRASP: gonococcal resistance to antimicrobial surveillance programme; MSM: men who have sex with men; MSW: men who have sex with women; NA: not applicable; POCT: point-of-care test; W: women.
a The azithromycin resistance ranges were extended further to 1–10% for all population groups in one-way azithromycin resistance analysis so that the effect of more extreme values could be explored.
b The ciprofloxacin resistance ranges were extended further to 0–50% in one-way ciprofloxacin resistance analysis so that the effect of more extreme values could be explored.