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. 2020 Oct 27:M20-4096. doi: 10.7326/M20-4096

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This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use for research, analyses, and text and data mining through PubMed Central. Acknowledgement of the original source shall include a notice similar to the following: "© 2020 American College of Physicians. Some rights reserved. This work permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited." These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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Visual Abstract. Predicting COVID-19 Trends Over Time During the COVID-19 pandemic, various social distancing measures were implemented to reduce transmission of the virus. The effect of easing these measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is uncertain. This study, which involved an agent-based simulation model, considers the effect of implementing and easing social distancing measures at different levels of adherence on the total number of COVID-19 cases in 3 urban communities. — During the COVID-19 pandemic, various social distancing measures were implemented to reduce transmission of the virus. The effect of easing these measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is uncertain. This study, which involved an agent-based simulation model, considers the effect of implementing and easing social distancing measures at different levels of adherence on the total number of COVID-19 cases in 3 urban communities.