Table 2.
Effect of Stringency and Trust on Mobility.
| Effect of policy stringency on mobility |
Mediating effect of continuous trust on the stringency effect |
Mediating effect of continuous trust on the stringency effect, by stringency level |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) | |
| Stringency | −0.730∗∗∗ | −0.715∗∗∗ | −0.642∗∗∗ | −0.620∗∗∗ | −0.632∗∗∗ | −0.610∗∗∗ | −0.629∗∗∗ | −0.613∗∗∗ | −0.616∗∗∗ | −0.600∗∗∗ |
| (0.0344) | (0.0361) | (0.0543) | (0.0581) | (0.0552) | (0.0596) | (0.0520) | (0.0557) | (0.0527) | (0.0571) | |
| Stringency x trust | −0.164∗∗ | −0.174∗∗ | −0.184∗∗ | −0.195∗∗ | ||||||
| (0.0765) | (0.0862) | (0.0821) | (0.0931) | |||||||
| Stringency (high) x trust | −0.162∗∗ | −0.174∗∗ | −0.187∗∗ | −0.198∗∗ | ||||||
| (0.0773) | (0.0865) | (0.0828) | (0.0934) | |||||||
| Stringency (low) x trust | −0.0833 | −0.127 | −0.0993 | −0.145 | ||||||
| (0.0914) | (0.100) | (0.0952) | (0.105) | |||||||
| Observations | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 | 7,649 |
| R-squared | 0.920 | 0.920 | 0.928 | 0.927 | 0.936 | 0.936 | 0.928 | 0.927 | 0.936 | 0.936 |
| Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No |
| Region FE | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Region reweighting | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| Elasticities with respect to (continuous) trust: | ||||||||||
| Mobility | −0.112 | −0.119 | −0.125 | −0.133 | ||||||
| Death growth rate | −0.134 | −0.142 | −0.150 | −0.159 | ||||||
Note: Authors’ estimation of Google mobility index (retail and recreation) on stringency index (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker) and trust data (ESS) for the period from March 1 to April 5, 2020. Estimations include the lagged daily number of COVID-19 fatalities (cf. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), day dummies and regional control variables (unemployment and population density). As indicated, they also account for country fixed effect (in this case, we include both regional controls and their interaction with stringency) or region fixed effect (in this case, we include only the interaction term). Region reweighting: observations are weighted by (1/# of regions in the corresponding country). Robust standard errors in parentheses, cluster-bootstrapped at region level (1000 replications). Significance level: ∗∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗ p < 0.1.