Table 1.

Description and values of the parameters used in the simulations.

Parameter	Description (unit)	Value (95% CI if available)
$\beta$	Transmission rate	From formula (12)
${\sigma }_i$	Severe infection rate	3.6% ($2.1\text{\%}$–$5.6\text{\%}$) [8]
${\gamma }_E$	Incubation time (day−1)	0.25 (fit to data)
${\gamma }_M$	Infectious time, mild infections (day−1)	0.17 (fit to data)
${\gamma }_S$	Infectious time, severe infections (day−1)	0.14 (fit to data)
$d_i$	Fatality rate (severe infections)	18.1% ($17.8\text{\%}$–$18.4\text{\%}$) [8]
$t_0$	Initial simulation time	Jan 28th 2020
$(I_{Sa}\left(0\right),I_{Ma}\left(0\right))$	Infected at initial time: (severe, mild)	$(1,37)$ (fit to data)
${\gamma }_R$	Immunity time (day−1)	$1∕142$[9], see also [10]
$f,{\sigma }_f,{\sigma }_r$	Parameters for	Scenario dependent
$d_f,d_r$	Other branches	cf. Table 3
$R_t$	Effective	Fit to data
	Reproduction rate	See Table Table 2, Fig. 1