Table 4.
Clinical Model and Biomarker Outcome Prediction of the Critical, The Severe and the Mild
| Variable(s) | AUC (95% CI) | P value | SD | Cut-off point | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | LR+ | LR- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1: Critical vs Mild | ||||||||||
| SAA | 0.81(0.72,0.90) | <0.001 | 0.05 | 16.92 | 100 | 61.70 | 55.80 | 100 | 2.61 | 0 |
| D-D | 0.84(0.75,0.93) | <0.001 | 0.05 | 501.00 | 78.10 | 85.10 | 78.10 | 85.10 | 5.24 | 0.26 |
| WBC | 0.87(0.78,0.96) | <0.001 | 0.05 | 8.06 | 84.40 | 85 | 75.01 | 91.08 | 5.63 | 0.18 |
| SOD | 0.89(0.82,0.96) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 154.05 | 90.0 | 87.5 | 93.1 | 82.4 | 7.2 | 0.1 |
| CRP | 0.89(0.83,0.96) | <0.001 | 0.03 | 32.35 | 87.10 | 83.10 | 73.03 | 92.46 | 5.15 | 0.16 |
| NEUT | 0.89(0.81,0.97) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 5.40 | 90.60 | 86.70 | 78.42 | 94.53 | 6.81 | 0.11 |
| PCT | 0.91(0.83,0.98) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 87.50 | 90.70 | 87.50 | 90.70 | 9.41 | 0.14 |
| IL-10 | 0.91(0.85,0.96) | <0.001 | 0.03 | 3.69 | 87.50 | 78.30 | 68.26 | 92.15 | 4.03 | 0.16 |
| IL-6 | 0.95(0.91,0.99) | <0.001 | 0.02 | 8.42 | 87.50 | 88.30 | 79.95 | 92.98 | 7.48 | 0.14 |
| Panel 1 | 0.99(0.98,1.00) | <0.001 | 0.01 | N/A | 90.60 | 100 | 100 | 93.46 | N/A | 0.09 |
| Model 2: Severe vs Mild | ||||||||||
| IL-10 | 0.53(0.40,0.66) | 0.625 | 0.07 | 2.40 | 42.90 | 66.70 | 37.55 | 71.45 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| WBC | 0.61(0.47,0.74) | 0.107 | 0.07 | 7.08 | 50 | 81.70 | 56.04 | 77.78 | 2.73 | 0.61 |
| IL6 | 0.67(0.55,0.79) | 0.012 | 0.06 | 0.64 | 89.30 | 40 | 40.99 | 88.90 | 1.49 | 0.27 |
| PCT | 0.68(0.54,0.81) | 0.011 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 46.40 | 90.70 | 97.22 | 19.47 | 4.99 | 0.59 |
| NEUT | 0.69(0.56,0.82) | 0.004 | 0.07 | 5.38 | 57.10 | 86.70 | 66.71 | 81.24 | 4.29 | 0.49 |
| D-D | 0.75(0.63,0.86) | <0.001 | 0.06 | 238.00 | 82.10 | 66 | 58.99 | 86.09 | 2.41 | 0.27 |
| SAA | 0.78(0.69,0.88) | <0.001 | 0.05 | 17.28 | 96.20 | 61.70 | 52.12 | 97.40 | 2.51 | 0.06 |
| CRP | 0.83(0.75,0.92) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 12.26 | 92.9 | 67.80 | 57.79 | 95.27 | 2.89 | 0.10 |
| SOD | 0.89(0.80,0.97) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 156.00 | 88.30 | 89.30 | 94.65 | 78.08 | 8.25 | 0.13 |
| Panel 2 | 0.89(0.80,0.97) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 156.00 | 89.30 | 88.30 | 78.08 | 94.65 | 7.63 | 0.12 |
| Model 3: Critical vs Severe | ||||||||||
| SAA | 0.52(0.37,0.68) | 0.787 | 0.08 | 111.96 | 65.50 | 46.20 | 57.59 | 54.56 | 1.22 | 0.75 |
| SOD | 0.57(0.43,0.72) | 0.328 | 0.08 | 113.45 | 92.90 | 37.50 | 56.53 | 85.79 | 1.49 | 0.19 |
| D-D | 0.60(0.46,0.75) | 0.181 | 0.08 | 477.00 | 78.10 | 48.10 | 64.07 | 64.95 | 1.50 | 0.46 |
| CRP | 0.67(0.52,0.81) | 0.030 | 0.07 | 81.88 | 64.50 | 75 | 74.07 | 65.61 | 2.58 | 0.47 |
| PCT | 0.76(0.64,0.88) | 0.001 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 81.30 | 60.70 | 70.28 | 73.96 | 2.07 | 0.31 |
| WBC | 0.81(0.70,0.93) | <0.001 | 0.06 | 8.05 | 84.40 | 78.60 | 81.84 | 81.51 | 3.94 | 0.20 |
| NEUT | 0.81(0.70,0.93) | <0.001 | 0.06 | 6.69 | 84.40 | 78.60 | 81.84 | 81.51 | 3.94 | 0.20 |
| IL-6 | 0.88(0.80,0.96) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 9.33 | 84.40 | 71.40 | 77.13 | 80.00 | 2.95 | 0.22 |
| IL-10 | 0.89(0.82,0.97) | <0.001 | 0.04 | 3.77 | 87.5 | 75 | 80 | 84 | 3.50 | 0.17 |
| Panel 3 | 0.95(0.90,1.00) | <0.001 | 0.02 | N/A | 75 | 100 | 100 | 77.78 | N/A | 0.25 |
Notes: Panel 1: IL-6, NEUT, PCT; Panel 2: SOD; Panel 3: WBC, PCT, IL-6, SOD, IL-10. AUC, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; LR, likelihood ratio; P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Abbreviations: WBC, white blood cell; NEUT, absolute neutrophil count; CRP, C-reactive protein; PCT, procalcitonin; D-D, D-dimer; SAA, serum amyloid A; IL-6, interleukin-6; IL-10, interleukin-10; SOD, superoxide dismutase.