Table 4.

Values of AIC (and values of BIC in brackets) for the four models fitted to the data from 12 February 2020 to 25 March 2020.

Country	Models
	(Identity, Poisson)	(Log, Poisson)	(Identity, negative binomial)	(Log, negative binomial)
China	−46.8 (−43.3)	−50.9 (−47.3)	−55.3 (−50.0)	−56.2 (−50.9)
Denmark	−47.4 (−43.9)	−50.1 (−46.5)	−49.0 (−43.7)	−59.7 (−54.4)
Estonia	−50.5 (−47.1)	−58.6 (−55.2)	−59.1 (−53.9)	−63.0 (−57.9)
France	−51.7 (−48.2)	−54.7 (−51.1)	−59.4 (−54.0)	−60.7 (−55.4)
Germany	−50.3 (−46.7)	−58.5 (−55.0)	−58.6 (−53.3)	−60.6 (−55.3)
Italy	−47.6 (−44.1)	−47.8 (−44.2)	−58.8 (−53.5)	−60.7 (−55.3)
Malaysia	−52.8 (−49.3)	−53.3 (−49.8)	−55.8 (−50.6)	−58.1 (−52.8)
Philippines	−46.4 (−42.9)	−48.2 (−44.7)	−49.9 (−44.7)	−50.6 (−45.4)
Qatar	−53.9 (−50.5)	−59.5 (−56.0)	−59.4 (−54.3)	−62.8 (−57.6)
South Korea	−46.5 (−42.9)	−55.6 (−52.1)	−62.1 (−56.8)	−62.5 (−57.2)
Sri Lanka	−47.2 (−43.9)	−49.9 (−46.5)	−50.9 (−46.0)	−60.1 (−55.1)
Sweden	−49.0 (−45.5)	−49.7 (−46.2)	−54.0 (−48.6)	−57.5 (−52.2)
Taiwan	−47.3 (−43.8)	−47.9 (−44.4)	−52.8 (−47.5)	−55.9 (−50.7)
Thailand	−49.2 (−45.8)	−59.7 (−56.3)	−61.9 (−56.8)	−62.2 (−57.2)
United Arab Emirates	−47.5 (−44.1)	−51.2 (−47.8)	−56.9 (−51.8)	−63.9 (−58.8)
United Kingdom	−51.5 (−48.0)	−54.6 (−51.1)	−54.6 (−49.3)	−59.1 (−53.8)
United States of America	−50.6 (−47.0)	−51.4 (−47.9)	−54.8 (−49.5)	−55.2 (−49.9)
Vietnam	−49.4 (−45.9)	−49.9 (−46.5)	−54.8 (−49.6)	−60.1 (−54.9)