Table 4.
The impacts of COVID-19 on extreme and total poverty (at baseline and in scenarios involving no policies), Colombia
| No COVID-19 counterfactual | Baseline scenario with COVID | Larger income loss impact | Gradual recovery | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% income loss; immediate recovery | 100% income loss; immediate recovery | 50% income loss | 100% income loss | ||
| Extreme poverty headcount rate | 7.2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| Impact on extreme poverty headcount rate | + 0.9 | + 2.1 | + 1.3 | + 3.5 | |
| Number of new extreme poor | 3,508,285* | 415,166 | 1,001,457 | 602,100 | 1,656,607 |
| Total poverty headcount rate | 27.0 | 30.0 | 33.4 | 31.1 | 36.1 |
| Impact on total poverty headcount rate | + 3.0 | + 6.4 | + 4.1 | + 9.1 | |
| Number of new total poor | 13,072,592* | 1,457,215 | 3,105,649 | 1,981,653 | 4,428,811 |
Source Authors’ simulations using GEIH 2018
Note (*) the pre-COVID-19 number of extreme and total poor is assumed to remain constant through 2020
Extreme poverty headcount is defined as the percentage of people with per capita income below the national extreme poverty line of COP 117,805 (USD 31.44); and total poverty as below the total poverty line of COP 257,433 (USD 68.70)