Table 1.

Model parameters

Chance parameter	Probability	Values for sensitivity analysis	Reference(s)
Operative mortality	0.047	0.023–0.071	[21–23]
COVID-19 mortality	0.25	0.150–0.520	[4, 31, 33, 34]
Immediate resection
COVID-19 infection	0.014	0.0001–0.100	*
Stage 1	0.93	0.817–0.895	[24, 25]
Stage 2	0.06	0.107–0.143	[24, 25]
Stage 3	0.01	0.005–0.034	[24, 25]
Delayed resection
COVID-19 infection	0.00001	0.01	*
Surgery	0.994	0.95–1.0	[24]
Stage 1	0.91	0.789–0.895	[26–29]
Stage 2	0.07	0.111–0.200	[26–29]
Stage 3	0.02	0.005–0.038	[26–29]
No surgery (disease progression)	0.006	0–0.05	[24]

*Parameters set by research team based on base case clinical scenario, current local data