Table 2. Estimated health gains, costs, and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial TFA from the Australian food supply over 10 years and over the population lifetime.
| 10 years Estimate (95% UI) | Lifetime Estimate (95% UI) | |
|---|---|---|
| IHD events avoided | 9,931 (8,429; 11,532) | 56,759 (44,493; 69,358) |
| IHD deaths avoided | 2,294 (1,765; 2,851) | 41,877 (32,855; 51,138) |
| Life years gained | 5,532 (4,285; 6,845) | 127,268 (106,176; 148,917) |
| HALYs gained | 6,377 (5,151; 7,685) | 108,321 (91,187; 125,986) |
| Change in IHD-related healthcare costs, million AUD | 80 (-98; -69) | -538 (-628; -463) |
| Per capita, AUD | -15.0 (-18.3; -11.9) | -21.7 (-26.0; -17.3) |
| Change in total healthcare costs, million AUD | -14 (-34; 3) | 157 (48; 260) |
| Per capita, AUD | -19.7 (-24.5; -15.2) | -23.0 (-28.8; -17.5) |
| Policy costs, million AUD | 21.5 (21.3; 21.6) | 56.0 (55.9; 56.2) |
| Governmental costs | 14.3 (14.2; 14.5) | 47.6 (47.4; 47.7) |
| Legislation | 1.1 (0.9; 1.2) | 1.1 (0.9; 1.2) |
| Monitoring | 13.3 | 46.5 |
| Industry costs | 6.6 | 7.8 |
| Initial reformulation | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Annual industry costs | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Repackaging | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Net costs1, million AUD | 7.2 (-12.9; 24.4) | 212.9 (104.1; 315.8) |
| ICER2, AUD/HALY | 1,153 (dominant; 3,578) | 1,961 (1,015; 2,756) |
AUD, Australian dollar; HALY, health-adjusted life year; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; IHD, ischemic heart disease; TFA, trans-fatty acid; UI, uncertainty interval.
1Calculated as the sum of policy costs and change in total healthcare costs.
2Calculated as net costs divided by HALYs gained.