Table 3.
HIV Incidence Associated with Changes to HIV Care Linkage Rates and HIV Care Retention Rates, Overall and Stratified by Race/Ethnicity
| Overall | Black MSM | Hispanic MSM | White MSM | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | HIV Incidence | PIAB | HIV Incidence | PIAB | HIV Incidence | PIAB | HIV Incidence | PIAB |
| RateA (95% SI) | % (95% SI) | RateA (95% SI) | % (95% SI) | RateA (95% SI) | % (95% SI) | RateA (95% SI) | % (95% SI) | |
| HIV Care Linkage | ||||||||
| Relative Rates | ||||||||
| Base RatesC | 1.18 (0.91, 1.48) | – | 2.40 (1.80, 3.09) | – | 0.60 (0.00, 1.52) | – | 0.35 (0.21, 0.54) | – |
| Base Rate x 1.5 | 1.19 (0.92, 1.52) | 0.0 (−0.3, 0.3) | 2.40 (1.79, 3.15) | −0.1 (−0.4, 0.2) | 0.61 (0.00, 1.60) | 0.0 (−2.5, 0.0) | 0.35 (0.19, 0.56) | 0.5 (0.0, 1.0) |
| Base Rate x 2 | 1.19 (0.92, 1.50) | −0.1 (−0.4, 0.2) | 2.40 (1.82, 3.03) | −0.1 (−0.4, 0.1) | 0.61 (0.00, 1.46) | 0.0 (−2.6, 0.0) | 0.35 (0.19, 0.54) | 0.0 (−0.5, 0.5) |
| Interval Targets | ||||||||
| One Month | 1.18 (0.92, 1.47) | 0.1 (−0.2, 0.4) | 2.39 (1.80, 3.04) | 0.1 (−0.2, 0.4) | 0.61 (0.19, 1.55) | 0.0 (−2.5, 0.0) | 0.34 (0.19, 0.54) | 0.0 (−0.5, 0.6) |
| Two Weeks | 1.19 (0.91, 1.47) | 0.2 (−0.1, 0.4) | 2.37 (1.82, 3.03) | 0.1 (−0.1, 0.4) | 0.61 (0.00, 1.58) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.35 (0.19, 0.52) | 0.5 (0.0, 1.0) |
| Immediate | 1.17 (0.92, 1.46) | 0.8 (0.5, 1.0) | 2.36 (1.79, 3.05) | 0.7 (0.4, 1.0) | 0.61 (0.00, 1.57) | 0.0 (0.0, 2.3) | 0.34 (0.19, 0.53) | 1.0 (0.5, 1.5) |
| HIV Care Retention | ||||||||
| Relative Rates | ||||||||
| Base RatesD | 1.18 (0.90, 1.50) | – | 2.39 (1.77, 3.07) | – | 0.61 (0.00, 1.57) | – | 0.35 (0.19, 0.56) | – |
| Base Rates x 1.5 | 0.97 (0.73, 1.25) | 12.1 (11.8, 12.3) | 1.95 (1.43, 2.54) | 11.8 (11.6, 12.1) | 0.57 (0.00, 1.27) | 13.9 (13.0, 14.9) | 0.29 (0.14, 0.46) | 12.9 (12.4, 13.4) |
| Base Rates x 2 | 0.84 (0.62, 1.09) | 19.1 (18.9, 19.4) | 1.67 (1.20, 2.22) | 19.0 (18.7, 19.2) | 0.40 (0.00, 1.19) | 20.6 (19.8, 21.6) | 0.23 (0.11, 0.38) | 19.8 (19.3, 20.2) |
| Base Rates x 4 | 0.60 (0.42, 0.83) | 31.5 (31.2, 31.7) | 1.19 (0.78, 1.69) | 31.3 (31.1, 31.6) | 0.38 (0.00, 0.98) | 32.5 (32.1, 33.3) | 0.17 (0.06, 0.31) | 31.9 (31.5, 32.3) |
| Base Rates x 10E | 0.42 (0.26, 0.61) | 40.5 (40.3, 40.7) | 0.82 (0.49, 1.22) | 40.4 (40.2, 40.6) | 0.20 (0.00, 0.79) | 41.6 (40.7, 42.3) | 0.11 (0.02, 0.23) | 40.6 (40.2, 41.0) |
Abbreviations: PIA, percent of infections averted; SI, simulation interval
HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years at risk in the year 10 of the simulated intervention.
Percent of infections averted over the 10-year intervention relative to the reference model. PIA may be negative if the cumulative incidence in the experimental scenario is higher than the cumulative incidence in the reference scenario (which may occur by chance because of model stochasticity).
Base rates per week are 0.1775, 0.1900, and 0.2521 for black, Hispanic, and white MSM, corresponding to an average time to linkage of 5.6, 5.3, and 4.0 weeks, respectively (see Supplemental Table 11).
Base rates per week are 0.0062, 0.0055, and 0.0031 for black, Hispanic, and white MSM, corresponding to an average time on ART before stoppage of 3.1, 3.5, and 6.2 years, respectively.
10-fold rates per week are 0.062, 0.055, and 0.031 for black, Hispanic, and white MSM, corresponding to an average time on ART before stoppage of 31, 35, and 62 years, respectively.