Fig. 5. Estimated epidemiological parameters and cumulative incidence across different levels of transmission heterogeneity.

The parameter p_h gives the fraction of infected individuals that are responsible for 80% of secondary infections. Higher p_h values correspond to less transmission heterogeneity. a Estimated R₀ in Israel prior to March 19, 2020. b Estimated factor by which R₀ in Israel changed after March 19. c Estimated cumulative number of infected individuals in Israel on the date of the last sampled sequence (April 22, 2020). Horizontal dotted line at N = 13,942 shows the cumulative number of reported cases on April 22, 2020, as given by the ECDC (https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv). In a–c, only values that fall within the 95% highest posterior density intervals from the main MCMC chain are shown (total of 4751 data points). Violin plots show the kernel density estimation of the underlying distribution. The median value is denoted by a white dot and the black bar in the center of the violin defines the interquartile range. The black line stretched from the bar extends to the range of data that are not more than 1.5 times the interqaurtile range above the upper or below the lower quartile. Density is only plotted over the range of observed values. Results shown assume a time-varying migration rate estimated from a global maximum-likelihood phylogeny. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.