Table 2.

Predictive inference, measuring the effect of changes in the states of each node on the output node of BNN models: E. coli detected at POU (drinking water storage).

BBN model 1B: with type of POC as one of the outer nodes										BBN mode 2B: with SI at well as one of the outer nodes
Variable	Probability of E. coli not-detected at POU (%)								∆Pa	Variable	Probability of E. coli not-detected at POU (%)					∆P
Point of collection										Point of collection
Type of POC	Piped		Well	Spring	River		Other		17	Cracked structure	Yes		No			2
	75		69	75	58		72				69		71
E. coli detected at POC	Yes			No					21	Livestock nearby	Yes		No			1
	56			77							70		71
Household water treatment										Proper fencing	Yes		No			0
Household Water treatment	No			Yes					6		70		70
	69			75						Excreta/garbage nearby	Yes		No			0
(re)contamination from environment–hygiene condition											70		70
Still practise open defecation	Yes			No					2	Prone to erosion	Yes		No			1
	71			73							71		70
Livestock nearby	Yes			No					1	Latrine within 10 m	Yes		No			0
	72			73							70		70
Floor cleanliness	Dirty			Clean					1	E. coli detected at POC	Yes		No			19
	72			71							59		78
Faeces around	Yes			No					1	Household water treatment
	72			73						Household water treatment	No		Yes			13
Garbage around	Yes			No					0		60		73
	72			72						(re)contamination from environment–hygiene condition
Flies around	Yes			No					0	Still practise open defecation	Yes		No			4
	72			72							67		71
Chance of contamination from the environment	High			Moderate		Low			7	Livestock nearby	Yes		No			5
	68			75		70					68		73
(re)contamination from water storage										Floor cleanliness	Yes		No			2
Storage covered	Yes			No					5		70		72
	74			69						Faeces around	Yes		No			5
Storage cracked	Yes			No					4		67		72
	69			73						Garbage around	Yes		No			1
Place of storage	Easy to contaminated			Not easy to contaminated					3		70		71
	71			74						Flies around	Yes		No			1
Chance of contamination from water storage	High			Moderate		Low			10		70		71
	64			74		74				Chance of contamination from the environment	High	Moderate	Low			22
Fullness level of water at storage											57	67	79
Fullness level of water at storage	Almost empty	One quarter		Half		Three quarter		Full	17	(re)contamination from water storage
	58	64		70		75		74		Storage covered	Yes		No			0
											70		70
										Storage cracked	Yes		No			0
											70		70
										Place of storage	Easy to contaminated		Not easy to contaminated			2
											71		69
										Chance of contamination from water storage	High	Moderate	Low			4
											68	72	68
										Fullness level of water at storage
										Fullness level of water at storage	Almost empty	One quarter	Half	Three quarter	Full	4
											70	73	69	70	71

The value under each category corresponding to a node as displayed in the first column is the updated probability of the output node being “Not_detected” given that all households maintain this state. The left side of the table was for the BBN model 1A (Fig. 5) and the right side was for BBN model 2B (Fig. 7).

^a∆P is the difference between the lowest and highest value of the updated probability of output node: E. coli detected at POU being “Not_detected”, in %. Examples of how to read the table: (a) row 4–5 BBN model 1B: if the type of POC is piped, the Probability of E. coli not-detected at POU (%) is 75%; (b) row 6–7 BBN model 1B: if E. coli is detected at POC (“yes”), the Probability of E. coli not-detected at POU (%) is 56%; (c) row 4–5 BBN model 2B: if there is a cracked in the structure (“yes”), the Probability of E. coli not-detected at POU (%) is 69%.