Table 2.
Model dog population parameters (pre-breeding season abundance and annual recruitment in the adult class) compared for five ABC scenarios.
| ABC target (per month) | Scenario | Model population parameter (± SD) | Pre-ABC | Year 10 | Year 15 | Year 20 | Year 25 | Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No ABC | Business as usual | Abundance | 35,183 (± 1,170) | 37,756 (± 1343) | 40,178 (± 1,661) | 41,573 (± 1,766) | 42,420 (± 1,843) | 42,879 (± 2,318) |
| Annual adult recruitment | 9,412 (± 508) | 10,131 (± 593) | 10,622 (± 648) | 10,913 (± 616) | 11,011 (± 710) | 11,090 (± 771) | ||
| ~ 250 | Best case | Abundance | 35,121 (± 1,329) | 34,271 (± 1,395) | 31,781 (± 1,529) | 35,584 (± 1,785) | 38,944 (± 1,762) | 40,686 (1,614) |
| Annual adult recruitment | 9,539 (± 634) | 8,512 (± 531) | 8439 (± 589) | 9,647 (± 592) | 10,441 (705) | 10,689 (± 679) | ||
| ~ 500 | Best case | Abundance | 34,980 (± 1,178) | 30,507 (± 1,366) | 20,306 (± 1,657) | 26,069 (± 1,934) | 33,265 (± 1,650) | 37,650 (± 1,588) |
| Annual adult recruitment | 9,297 (± 576) | 6,831 (± 501) | 5,105 (± 565) | 7,634 (± 620) | 9,244 (± 572) | 10,111 (± 621) | ||
| ~ 750 | Best case | Abundance | 34,647 (± 1,084) | 26,333 (± 1,381) | 5,217 (± 833) | 1,447 (± 1,359) | 1,540 (± 2,886) | 3,032 (± 5,532) |
| Annual adult recruitment | 9,247 (± 540) | 4,952 (± 476) | 87 (± 195) | 211 (± 462) | 481 (± 968) | 1,019 (± 1,811) | ||
| ~ 750 | Real world | Abundance | 35,829 (± 1,154) | 33,726 (± 1,416) | 29,150 (± 1,439) | 34,976 (± 1,608) | 39,577 (± 1,636) | 42,095 (± 2,038) |
| Annual adult recruitment | 9,386 (± 556) | 7,835 (± 522) | 7,556 (± 526) | 9,514 (± 580) | 10,422 (± 639) | 10,878 (± 744) |
Business as usual scenario is simulated in a closed dog population without any ABC intervention. For all other scenarios, ABC program is implemented over a 5-year period (year 6 to year 10). Best case scenario assumes a closed population and homogeneous capture probability. Real world scenario simulates 1% net annual immigration into the model dog population and heterogenous capture probability. Italicised values indicate values exceeding pre-intervention level.