Table 1. Summary of 52 risk models.
| Author, year | Country | Outcome | Factors included in score | Factors considered but not included | TRIPOD level* | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betes 2003a (21) | Spain | ACN + | Age, gender, BMI | NSAIDs, nonspecific abdominal pain, bowel habit (1-2 movements/day; diarrhoea-alternate; chronic constipation), cholesterol, triglycerides, form of recruitment | 1a | Medical records |
| Betes 2003b(21) | Spain | ACN | Age, gender, BMI | NSAIDs, nonspecific abdominal pain, bowel habit (1-2 movements/day; diarrhoea-alternate; chronic constipation), cholesterol, triglycerides, form of recruitment | 1a, 4 | Medical records |
| Cai 2012 (22) | China | ACN | Age, gender, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, white meat | BMI, hypertension, hypertriglyceridaemia, alcohol intake, calcium or vitamin D supplementation, aspirin or NSAIDs, fresh fruit, eggs, milk, red meat | 2a, 4 | Questionnaire |
| Chen 2013 (23) | China | ACN | Age, smoking, alcohol | Gender, history of CVD, egg intake, defaecation frequency, education level, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, gastric / gallbladder / appendix operations history, aspirin, tea drinking, physical activity, green vegetable / fruit / milk / pickled food / fried or smoked food / bamboo root / red meat / white meat intake | 1b | Medical records |
| Chen 2014 (24) | China | ACN | Age, gender, history of CHD, egg intake, defaecation frequency | Education level, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, gastric/ gallbladder / appendix operations history, aspirin use, smoking, alcohol, tea drinking, physical activity, green vegetable / fruit / milk / pickled food / fried or smoked food / bamboo root / red meat intake / white meat intake | 1b | Questionnaire |
| Hassan 2013 (25) | Italy | ACN | Age, gender | Family history, BMI | 1b | Medical records |
| Kaminski 2014 (26) | Poland | ACN | Age, gender, BMI, smoking, number and age affected of first degree relatives with CRC | Diabetes, regular aspirin use | 2a | Questionnaire |
| Lin 2006 (27) | USA | ACN | Age, gender, first degree relative with CRC or second degree relative with adenoma | None | 1a, 4 | Questionnaire |
| Lin 2013 (28) | USA | ACN | Age, BMI, smoking, number of first degree relatives with CRC, previous sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy, polyp history in past 10 years, physical activity, vegetable consumption, NSAID use, oestrogen use | None | 1b | Questionnaire |
| Stegeman 2013 (30) | Netherlands | ACN | Age, gender, BMI, first degree relative with CRC, menopausal status (women), smoking, sleep, vigorous exercise, alcohol, fibre intake, calcium intake, red meat intake, aspirin/NSAID use | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Stegeman 2014 (29) | Netherlands | ACN | Age, smoking, first degree relative with CRC, faecal immunochemical test, calcium intake | BMI, menopausal status, aspirin/NSAID use, fibre / red meat intake | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Tao 2014a (31) | Germany | ACN | Age, gender, smoking, first-degree relative with CRC, alcohol, previous polyp, red meat consumption, NSAIDS, previous colonoscopy | BMI, physical activity, vegetable / fruit intake, HRT | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Yeoh 2011 (32) | Asia | ACN | Age, gender, smoking, first degree relative with CRC | Alcohol, diabetes | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Almurshed 2009 (33) | Saudi Arabia | CC | Region, marital status, education level, employment status, activity level, physical activity, knowledge of high-fibre diet | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Camp 2002 (34) | USA | CC | Age, BMI, first degree relative with CRC, NSAID use, long term vigorous physical activity, Western diet, folic acid, calcium intake, lutein intake, refined grain intake, Prudent dietary pattern | Sex, hormone replacement therapy, smoking history, calorific intake, dietary fibre, total vegetable / fat intake, glycaemic index of intake, mutagen index, alcohol consumption | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Colditz 2000 (35) | USA | CC | BMI, first degree relative with CRC, faecal occult blood test or sigmoidoscopy, aspirin, IBD, folate, vegetables, alcohol, height, physical activity, oestrogen replacement, fruits, fibre, saturated fat, smoking | None | 1a, 4 | Questionnaire |
| Driver 2007a (36) | USA | CC | Age, BMI, history of smoking | Weekly or daily alcohol use, intake of vegetables, intake of multivitamins, vitamin C, vitamin E, intake of cold cereal, physical activity, history of diabetes | 1a | Medical records |
| Ma 2010a (38) | Japan | CC | Age, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activity | FH CRC, diabetes | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Wei E 2009 (40) | USA | CC | Age, BMI, smoking, current or past HRT, height, first degree relative with colon cancer, processed meat consumption, folate intake, physical activity, aspirin use, sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy during follow up | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Wei E 2004a (41) | USA | CC | Age, gender, BMI, smoking, alcohol, first degree relative with colon cancer, physical activity, height, processed meat, servings of beef, pork or lamb, folate intake, calcium intake | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Shin 2014a (39) | Korea | CC (male) | Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumption | Smoking, exercise | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
| Shin 2014d (39) | Korea | CC (female) | Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumption | BMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
| Freedman 2009b (37) | USA | Distal CC (male) | BMI, number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID use | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit / vegetable intake, alcohol intake, physical activity, smoking, age | 1a, 4** | Questionnaire |
| Freedman 2009e (37) | USA | Distal CC (female) | Age, BMI, number of relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID use, oestrogen use in last 2 years | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit / vegetable intake, alcohol intake, physical activity | 1a, 4** | Questionnaire |
| Freedman 2009a (37) | USA | Proximal CC (male) | BMI, smoking,, number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID use, vegetable consumption | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit intake, alcohol intake, physical activity, age | 1a, 4** | Questionnaire |
| Freedman 2009d (37) | USA | Proximal CC (female) | Number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, physical activity, aspirin and NSAID use, vegetable consumption, oestrogen use in last 2 years | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit intake, alcohol intake, BMI, age | 1a, 4** | Questionnaire |
| Bener 2010 (42) | Qatar | CRC | BMI, smoking, family history of CRC, consumption of bakery products, consumption of soft drinks | Smoking of Sheesha, fresh fruit / fresh vegetable / green salad / frozen meat/chicken / fast food / processed food intake, consanguinity | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Driver 2007b (36) | USA | CRC | Age, BMI, history of smoking, weekly or daily alcohol use | Intake of vegetables, intake of multivitamins, vitamin C, vitamin E, intake of cold cereal, physical activity, history of diabetes | 1b | Medical records |
| Dunlop 2013 (43) | Worldwide | CRC | Age, gender, first degree relative with CRC, 10 SNPs1 | None | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test for genetics |
| Guesmi 2010 (44) | Tunisia | CRC | Age, meat consumption, milk consumption | Gender, anaemia, smoking, physical activity, fruit / fried food intake, urban or rural living, olive oil consumption, walking | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Han 2008 (45) | Not given | CRC | 5 genes2 | Affymetrix U133Plis 2.0 chip | 3 | Blood test for genetics |
| Johnson 2013 (47) | Worldwide | CRC | BMI, smoking, first degree relative with CRC, physical activity, alcohol, IBD, hormone therapy (current or former), aspirin/NSAIDs, processed meat / red meat / fruit / vegetable intake | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Lubbe 2012 (48) | UK | CRC | 14 SNPs3 | None | 1a | Blood test for genetics |
| Ma 2010c (38) | Japan | CRC | Age, BMI, smoking, physical activity, alcohol | FH CRC, diabetes | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Marshall 2010 (49) | Canada and USA | CRC | 7 genes4 | 38 genes | 2b | Blood test for genetics |
| Tao 2014b (31) | Germany | CRC | Age, gender, smoking, first-degree relative with CRC, alcohol, previous polyp, red meat consumption, NSAIDS, previous colonoscopy | BMI, physical activity, vegetable / fruit intake, HRT | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Taylor 2011 (50) | USA | CRC | Age, first, second and third degree relatives with CRC | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Wang 2013 (51) | Taiwan | CRC | 16 SNPs5 | 10 additional SNPs | 1b | Blood test for genetics |
| Yarnall 2013 (54) | UK data | CRC | BMI, smoking, alcohol, fibre intake, red meat intake, physical activity, 14 SNPs6 | None | 1a | Questionnaire and blood test for genetics |
| Wei Y 2009 (52) | China | CRC | BMI, smoking, first or second degree relative with CRC, alcohol | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Shin 2014c (39) | Korea | CRC (male) | Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumption | Smoking, exercise | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
| Wells 2014b (53) | California and Hawaii | CRC (male) | Age, BMI, smoking, first degree relative with CC, race/ethnicity, alcohol, years of education, regular use of aspirin, multivitamins, red meat intake, history of diabetes, physical activity | History of cancer, regular use of NSAIDs, preference for well-done meat | 1b | Questionnaire |
| Jo 2012b (46) | Korea | CRC (male) | 3 SNPs7, age, family history of CRC | From 426,019 SNPs | 1b | Questionnaire and blood test for genetics |
| Shin 2014f (39) | Korea | CRC (female) | Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumption | BMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
| Wells 2014a (53) | California and Hawaii | CRC (female) | Age, BMI, smoking, first degree relative with CC, race/ethnicity, alcohol, years of education, regular use of NSAIDs, multivitamins, history of diabetes, use of oestrogen | Preference for well done meat, physical activity, regular use of aspirin, red meat intake, history of cancer | 1b | Questionnaire |
| Jo 2012a (46) | Korea | CRC (female) | Age, family history of CRC, 5 SNPs8 | From 426,019 SNPs | 1b | Questionnaire and blood test for genetics |
| Ma 2010b (38) | Japan | Rectal cancer | Age, BMI, physical activity, alcohol | FH CRC, diabetes, smoking | 3 | Questionnaire |
| Wei E 2004b (41) | USA | Rectal cancer | Age, BMI, smoking, first degree relative with rectal cancer, alcohol, physical activity, height, processed meat, gender, servings of beef, pork or lamb, folate intake, calcium intake | None | 1a | Questionnaire |
| Freedman 2009c (37) | USA | Rectal cancer (male) | Number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, NSAID use, physical activity | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit / vegetable intake, alcohol intake, smoking, BMI, age | 1a, 4* | Questionnaire |
| Shin 2014b (39) | Korea | Rectal cancer (male) | Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumption | Smoking, exercise | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
| Freedman 2009f (37) | USA | Rectal cancer (female) | BMI, number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, physical activity, NSAID use, oestrogen use in last 2 years | FOBT, multivitamin use, red meat / fruit / vegetable intake, alcohol intake, age | 1a, 4* | Questionnaire |
| Shin 2014e (39) | Korea | Rectal cancer (female) | Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumption | BMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors | 3 | Questionnaire and blood test |
*
Types of prediction model studies for each model defined according to the TRIPOD guidelines. 1a – Development only; 1b – Development and validation using resampling; 2a – Random split-sample development and validation; 2b – Nonrandom split-sample development and validation; 3 – Development and validation using separate data; 4 – Validation study
**
The validation was for colon and rectal cancer combined
ACN+ - advanced colorectal neoplasia including moderate dysplasia
ACN – advanced colorectal neoplasia
CC – colon cancer
CRC – colorectal cancer
BMI – body mass index
NSAIDs – non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
CVD – cardiovascular disease
CHD – coronary heart disease
HRT – hormone replacement therapy
IBD – inflammatory bowel disease
FOBT – faecal occult blood test
FH – family history
1
rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4939827, rs3802842, rs10795668, rs16892766, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10411210, rs961253
2
BANK1,B-cell scaffold protein with ankyrin repeats 1; BCNP1,B-cell novel protein 1; CDA, cytidine deaminase; MGC20553, FERM domain containing 3; MS4A, membrane-spanning 4 domains
3
14 SNPs localizing to 14 chromosome regions – 1q41, 3q26.2, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10p14, 11q23.1, 12q13.13, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 16q22.1, 18q21.1, 19q13.11, 20p12.3, 20q13.33
4
ANXA3, Annexin A3; CLEC4D, C-type lectin domain family4, member D; IL2RB, Interleukin 2 receptor, beta; LMNB1, Lamin B1; PRRG4, Proline risk Gla 4; TNFAIP6, Tumour necrosis factor, alpha-induced protein 6; VNN1, Vanin 1
5
rs1983891, rs869736, rs3214050, rs10411210, rs3731055, rs231775, rs1412829, rs1572072, rs6983267, rs1799782, rs712221, rs160277, rs11721827, rs2736100, rs3135967, rs1760944
6
rs6691170, rs10936599, rs16892766, rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842, rs11169552, rs4444235, rs4779584, rs9929218, rs4939827, rs10411210, rs961253, rs4925386
7
rs17391002, rs9549448, rs254833
8
rs10083736, rs16987827, rs8046516, rs9926182, rs175237