Table 4. Results of population modelling studies showing the difference in recommended starting age or estimated number of years earlier that individuals would be invited to screening if the age of invitation was determined by a risk threshold based on a genetic or phenotypic model.
| Author, year | Model specific risk threshold used to determine starting age for screening | Type of risk model / included risk factors | Difference in years in recommended starting age for screening between those in the highest and lowest percentiles of risk | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papers selecting the top and bottom 1% of risk for comparison | Papers selecting the top and bottom 10% of risk for comparison | Papers selecting the top and bottom 20% of risk for comparison | Papers selecting the top and bottom 33% of risk for comparison | |||
| Hsu 2015 | Average 10 year risk of a 50 year old (0.91%) | FH | --- | Men: 5 (44 to 49)*
Women: 4 (50 to 54)* |
--- | --- |
| FH +SNPs | --- | Men: 10 (42 to 52) Women: 11 (47 to 58) |
--- | --- | ||
| Jenkins 2019 | 0.3% 5 year estimated risk | SNPs | --- | --- | Men: 10 (45-55) Women: 14 (47 to 61) |
--- |
| FH +SNPs | --- | --- | Men: 22 (35 to 57) Women: 27 (35 to 62) |
--- | ||
| Jenkins 2016 (USA) | 1% 5 year estimated risk | FH + SNPs | --- | Men: 27 (46 to 73) Women: 32 (48 to 80) |
Men: 18 (48 to 66) Women: 21 (52 to 73) |
--- |
| Jenkins 2016 (Australia) | 1% 5 year estimated risk | FH + SNPs | --- | Men: 17 (46 to 63) Women: 23 (53 to 76) |
Men: 13 (48 to 61) Women: 17 (55 to 72) |
|
| Jeon 2018 | Average 10 year risk of a 50 year old (0.97%) | FH + SNPs + phenotypic | Men:17 (38 to 55) Women:21 (43 to 64) |
Men: 11 (40 to 51) Women: 13 (46 to 59) |
--- | --- |
| Huyghe 2018 | Average 10 year risk of a 50 year old (1.13% for men and 0.68% for women) | SNPs | Men: 18 (41 to 59) Women: 24 (45 to 69) |
Men: 10 (range 44 to 54) Women: 12 (range 49 to 61) |
--- | --- |
| Weigl 2018 | Average relative risk for a 60 year old with medium genetic risk | SNPs | --- | --- | --- | 17.5 (56 to 73) |
| Author, year | Risk threshold | Risk factors | Years earlier for recommended starting age for those in the highest percentiles | |||
| 1% | 10% | 20% | 33% | |||
| Dunlop 2013 | 5% 10 year estimated risk | FH | Men: >15 (from >75) Women: > 12 (from >80) |
--- | --- | --- |
| FH + SNPs | Men: > 23 (from >75) Women: >22 (from >80) |
--- | --- | --- | ||
| Jenkins 2016 (USA) | 1% 5 year estimated risk | FH | --- | Men: 12 (from 67)*
Women: 12 (from 73)* |
--- | --- |
| SNPs | --- | Men: 14 (from 67) Women: 14 (from 73) |
Men: 10 (from 67) Women: 11 (from 73) |
--- | ||
| FH + SNPs | --- | Men: 21 (from 67) Women: 25 (from 73) |
Men: 19 (from 67) Women 21 (from 73) |
--- | ||
| Jenkins 2016 (Australia) | 1% 5 year estimated risk | FH | --- | Men: 9 (from 61)*
Women: 12 (from 71)* |
--- | --- |
| SNPs | --- | Men: 9 (from 61) Women: 12 (from 71) |
Men: 6 (from 61) Women: 9 (from 71) |
--- | ||
| FH +SNPs | --- | Men: 15 (from 61) Women: 18 (from 71) |
Men: 13 (from 61) Women 16 (from 71) |
--- | ||
*
based on presence or absence of family history (FH), not top and/or bottom 10%.