Extended Data Table 2. Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in sensitivity analyses.
| Fully adjusted HR and 95% CI | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristic | Category | Primary analysis | Early censoring at 6/4/2020 | Restricted to those with complete BMI /smoking | Adjusted for ethnicity in those where recorded | Adjusted for ethnicity using multiple imputation |
| N outcome events in analysis | 10926 | 2816 | 9880 | 8149 | ||
| Age | 18-<40 | 0.06 (0.04-0.08) | 0.07 (0.04-0.12) | 0.07 (0.05-0.10) | 0.07 (0.05-0.09) | 0.06 (0.04-0.07) |
| 40-<50 | 0.30 (0.25-0.36) | 0.33 (0.23-0.46) | 0.30 (0.25-0.37) | 0.29 (0.24-0.36) | 0.29 (0.24-0.35) | |
| 50-<60 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | |
| 60-<70 | 2.40 (2.16-2.66) | 2.55 (2.11-3.08) | 2.38 (2.13-2.66) | 2.37 (2.11-2.67) | 2.43 (2.19-2.70) | |
| 70-<80 | 6.07 (5.51-6.69) | 5.84 (4.88-6.98) | 5.96 (5.37-6.61) | 6.05 (5.42-6.76) | 6.24 (5.66-6.87) | |
| 80+ | 20.60 (18.70-22.68) | 14.66 (12.23-17.58) | 19.96 (18.00-22.14) | 20.19 (18.08-22.54) | 21.19 (19.23-23.34) | |
| Sex | Female | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Male | 1.59 (1.53-1.65) | 1.89 (1.75-2.05) | 1.65 (1.58-1.72) | 1.54 (1.47-1.61) | 1.57 (1.52-1.64) | |
| BMI | Not obese | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | |
| 30-34.9kg/m2 (Obese class I) | 1.05 (1.00-1.11) | 1.30 (1.18-1.43) | 1.07 (1.02-1.13) | 1.05 (0.99-1.11) | 1.06 (1.00-1.11) | |
| 35-39.9kg/m2 (Obese class II) | 1.40 (1.30-1.52) | 1.57 (1.36-1.81) | 1.45 (1.34-1.57) | 1.41 (1.30-1.54) | 1.42 (1.32-1.54) | |
| ≥40 kg/m2 (Obese class III) | 1.92 (1.72-2.13) | 2.70 (2.26-3.21) | 1.99 (1.79-2.21) | 1.92 (1.70-2.17) | 1.96 (1.76-2.18) | |
| Smoking | Never | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Former | 1.19 (1.14-1.24) | 1.27 (1.17-1.39) | 1.18 (1.13-1.24) | 1.22 (1.16-1.29) | 1.23 (1.18-1.29) | |
| Current | 0.89 (0.82-0.97) | 0.93 (0.79-1.09) | 0.91 (0.83-0.99) | 0.93 (0.84-1.02) | 0.93 (0.85-1.01) | |
| Ethnicity * | White | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| Mixed | 1.43 (1.11-1.84) | 1.01 (0.60-1.72) | 1.38 (1.05-1.80) | 1.43 (1.11-1.84) | 1.44 (1.06-1.95) | |
| South Asian | 1.45 (1.32-1.58) | 1.63 (1.38-1.91) | 1.51 (1.38-1.66) | 1.45 (1.32-1.58) | 1.48 (1.33-1.65) | |
| Black | 1.48 (1.29-1.69) | 1.76 (1.41-2.19) | 1.47 (1.28-1.69) | 1.48 (1.29-1.69) | 1.53 (1.32-1.77) | |
| Other | 1.33 (1.10-1.61) | 1.84 (1.37-2.47) | 1.40 (1.15-1.71) | 1.33 (1.10-1.61) | 1.34 (1.12 1.61) | |
| IMD quintile | 1 (least deprived) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| 2 | 1.12 (1.05-1.19) | 0.96 (0.85-1.08) | 1.12 (1.05-1.19) | 1.16 (1.08-1.25) | 1.12 (1.05-1.19) | |
| 3 | 1.22 (1.15-1.30) | 1.00 (0.88-1.12) | 1.23 (1.15-1.31) | 1.26 (1.17-1.36) | 1.21 (1.14-1.29) | |
| 4 | 1.51 (1.42-1.61) | 1.26 (1.11-1.41) | 1.51 (1.42-1.61) | 1.54 (1.43-1.66) | 1.48 (1.39-1.57) | |
| 5 (most deprived) | 1.79 (1.68-1.91) | 1.41 (1.25-1.60) | 1.80 (1.68-1.93) | 1.77 (1.64-1.91) | 1.72 (1.61-1.84) | |
| Blood pressure | Normal | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) | 1.00 (ref) |
| High bp or diagnosed hyper-tension | 0.89 (0.85-0.93) | 0.95 (0.87-1.04) | 0.88 (0.84-0.92) | 0.91 (0.86-0.96) | 0.89 (0.85-0.93) | |
| Respiratory disease ex asthma | 1.63 (1.55-1.71) | 1.86 (1.69-2.04) | 1.59 (1.51-1.67) | 1.65 (1.56-1.75) | 1.64 (1.56-1.72) | |
| Asthma (vs none) ** | With no recent OCS use | 0.99 (0.93-1.05) | 1.08 (0.96-1.20) | 0.97 (0.91-1.04) | 0.94 (0.87-1.00) | 0.98 (0.93-1.05) |
| With recent OCS use | 1.13 (1.01-1.26) | 1.38 (1.13-1.67) | 1.09 (0.97-1.22) | 1.08 (0.95-1.23) | 1.11 (0.99-1.24) | |
| Chronic heart disease | 1.17 (1.12-1.22) | 1.37 (1.26-1.48) | 1.16 (1.11-1.22) | 1.16 (1.11-1.22) | 1.17 (1.12-1.22) | |
| Diabetes (vs none) *** | With HbA1c<58 mmol/mol | 1.31 (1.24-1.37) | 1.39 (1.26-1.52) | 1.29 (1.23-1.36) | 1.28 (1.21-1.36) | 1.27 (1.21-1.33) |
| WithHbA1c>=58 mmol/mol | 1.95 (1.83-2.08) | 2.33 (2.08-2.61) | 1.90 (1.78-2.02) | 1.86 (1.73-2.00) | 1.87 (1.76-1.99) | |
| With no recent HbA1c measure | 1.90 (1.72-2.09) | 1.71 (1.40-2.08) | 1.92 (1.74-2.12) | 1.86 (1.67-2.08) | 1.84 (1.67-2.02) | |
| Cancer (non-haematological, vs none) | Diagnosed < 1 year ago | 1.72 (1.50-1.96) | 1.66 (1.27-2.16) | 1.68 (1.46-1.94) | 1.67 (1.43-1.96) | 1.74 (1.52-1.99) |
| Diagnosed 1-4.9 years ago | 1.15 (1.05-1.27) | 1.34 (1.13-1.60) | 1.16 (1.05-1.28) | 1.21 (1.09-1.35) | 1.17 (1.06-1.28) | |
| Diagnosed ≥5 years ago | 0.96 (0.91-1.03) | 0.92 (0.81-1.04) | 0.97 (0.91-1.03) | 0.98 (0.92-1.06) | 0.97 (0.92-1.04) | |
| Haematological malignancy (vs none) | Diagnosed < 1 year ago | 2.80 (2.08-3.78) | 2.20 (1.14-4.24) | 2.86 (2.10-3.88) | 2.33 (1.60-3.41) | 2.81 (2.08-3.79) |
| Diagnosed 1-4.9 years ago | 2.46 (2.06-2.95) | 3.49 (2.61-4.68) | 2.40 (1.99-2.90) | 2.53 (2.05-3.11) | 2.48 (2.07-2.97) | |
| Diagnosed ≥5 years ago | 1.61 (1.39-1.87) | 1.45 (1.06-1.97) | 1.61 (1.38-1.89) | 1.55 (1.30-1.85) | 1.63 (1.40-1.89) | |
| Reduced kidney function **** | Estimated GFR 30-60 | 1.33 (1.28-1.40) | 1.49 (1.36-1.63) | 1.33 (1.27-1.39) | 1.37 (1.30-1.44) | 1.33 (1.27-1.39) |
| Estimated GFR <30 | 2.52 (2.33-2.72) | 2.98 (2.57-3.45) | 2.47 (2.28-2.68) | 2.50 (2.29-2.74) | 2.50 (2.31-2.70) | |
| Liver disease | 1.75 (1.51-2.03) | 1.92 (1.48-2.49) | 1.69 (1.44-1.97) | 1.75 (1.48-2.07) | 1.75 (1.51-2.03) | |
| Stroke/dementia | 2.16 (2.06-2.27) | 1.74 (1.58-1.93) | 2.12 (2.01-2.22) | 2.16 (2.05-2.28) | 2.16 (2.06-2.27) | |
| Other neurological disease | 2.58 (2.38-2.79) | 2.26 (1.91-2.68) | 2.50 (2.30-2.73) | 2.53 (2.31-2.77) | 2.58 (2.38-2.80) | |
| Organ transplant | 3.53 (2.77-4.49) | 2.55 (1.59-4.10) | 3.70 (2.89-4.73) | 3.45 (2.62-4.54) | 3.48 (2.74-4.44) | |
| Asplenia | 1.34 (0.98-1.83) | 1.87 (1.12-3.11) | 1.29 (0.93-1.80) | 1.34 (0.94-1.92) | 1.33 (0.98-1.82) | |
| Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis | 1.19 (1.11-1.27) | 1.29 (1.14-1.46) | 1.17 (1.09-1.25) | 1.15 (1.07-1.24) | 1.20 (1.12-1.28) | |
| Other immunosuppressive condition | 2.21 (1.68-2.90) | 2.60 (1.65-4.09) | 2.11 (1.58-2.83) | 2.24 (1.66-3.03) | 1.67 (1.31-2.11) | |
FOOTNOTES: Models adjusted for age using a 4-knot cubic spline age spline, except for estimation of age group hazard ratios.
*
Ethnicity hazard ratios in primary analysis estimated from a model restricted to those with recorded ethnicity.
**
OCS = oral corticosteroids. Recent OCS use defined as in the year before baseline.
***
HbAHbA1c classification based on latest.
****
GFR == glomerular filtration rate in ml/min/1.73m2, based on most recent serum creatinine measure