Table 1.
Parameters for SHR model (confirmed deaths, first wave). p: country’s population (millions). μ and σ: parameters in the lognormal distribution. C(∞): asymptotic value for accumulated cases (per million person). R 2 and r 2 : R-squared correlation factors for C(t) and c(t), respectively. tM and t 2 : maximum and second inflection point (origin is the first of January 2020).
| Country | p | μ | σ | C(∞) | R2 | d1 | tM | t2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Britain | 66.65 | 3.61 ± 0.01 | 0.76 ± 0.02 | 688 ± 4 | 0.9999 | 07/03 | 37 | 52 |
| Spain | 46.94 | 3.55 ± 0.06 | 0.43 ± 0.03 | 606 ± 2 | 0.9997 | 05/03 | 28 | 40 |
| Italy | 60.36 | 3.75 ± 0.02 | 0.51 ± 0.01 | 581 ± 1 | 0.9999 | 23/02 | 37 | 52 |
| United States | 327.20 | 3.95 ± 0.01 | 1.08 ± 0.04 | 456 ± 5 | 0.9997 | 01/03 | 47 | 64 |
| France | 67.00 | 3.27 ± 0.03 | 0.59 ± 0.02 | 451 ± 1 | 0.9998 | 15/02 | 53 | 63 |
| Switzerland | 10.23 | 3.77 ± 0.03 | 0.36 ± 0.02 | 199 ± 1 | 0.9999 | 06/03 | 32 | 45 |
| Germany | 83.02 | 3.71 ± 0.02 | 0.45 ± 0.01 | 110 ± 0.3 | 0.9999 | 09/03 | 36 | 50 |
| Denmark | 5.81 | 3.60 ± 0.02 | 0.53 ± 0.01 | 106 ± 0.4 | 0.9999 | 16/03 | 23 | 36 |
| Austria | 8.86 | 3.30 ± 0.04 | 0.62 ± 0.03 | 80.5 ± 0.2 | 0.9997 | 13/03 | 26 | 38 |