Table 2.
Parameters for SHR model (confirmed infections, first wave). p: country’s population (millions). μ and σ: parameters in the lognormal distribution. C(∞): asymptotic value for accumulated cases (per million person). R 2 and r 2 : R-squared correlation factors for C(t) and c(t), respectively. tM and t 2 : maximum and second inflection point (origin is the first of January 2020).
| Country | p | μ | σ | C(∞) | R2 | d1 | tM | t2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Britain | 66.65 | 4.09 ± 0.01 | 0.47 ± 0.02 | 4511 ± 11 | 0.9999 | 31/01 | 78 | 99 |
| Spain | 46.94 | 3.55 ± 0.06 | 0.43 ± 0.03 | 5082 ± 14 | 0.9996 | 1/02 | 56 | 67 |
| Italy | 60.36 | 3.75 ± 0.02 | 0.51 ± 0.01 | 4083 ± 9 | 0.9999 | 31/01 | 56 | 71 |
| France | 67.00 | 3.66 ± 0.03 | 0.40 ± 0.02 | 2743 ± 12 | 0.9998 | 25/01 | 68 | 80 |
| United States | 327.20 | 4.23 ± 0.04 | 0.93 ± 0.03 | 13300 ± 400 | 0.9391 | 21/01 | 49 | 107 |
| Switzerland | 10.23 | 3.79 ± 0.03 | 0.35 ± 0.02 | 4028 ± 5 | 0.9999 | 26/02 | 31 | 41 |
| Germany | 83.02 | 3.84 ± 0.02 | 0.38 ± 0.01 | 2038 ± 10 | 0.9999 | 27/01 | 63 | 23 |
| Denmark | 5.81 | 4.35 ± 0.12 | 0.28 ± 0.04 | 2056 ± 30 | 0.9994 | 27/02 | 42 | 61 |
| Austria | 8.86 | 2.92 ± 0.05 | 0.57 ± 0.03 | 2334 ± 7 | 0.9996 | 26/02 | 29 | 37 |
| Finland | 5.52 | 4.41 ± 0.06 | 0.29 ± 0.02 | 1341 ± 12 | 0.9998 | 30/01 | 74 | 96 |