Table 1. Predicted optimal screening ages for BE in GERD and general populations.

Risk group	Sex	Optimal age (95% CI)	SD	OD	PPV	Cancer risk
General	Male	64 (63 - 66)	99.5%	2.4%	16.8%	0.17%
GERD	Male	58 (56 - 60)	99.6%	7.1%	28.6%	0.37%
General	Female	69 (68 - 71)	100 %	0.6%	9.6%	0.04%
GERD	Female	64 (59 - 67)	100 %	1.9%	17.9%	0.11%

Model predictions for optimal screening ages and associated metrics for w = 1 (see Supplementary Methods 3.7 for derivations): successful diagnoses (SD) predictive of future EAC cases up to fixed age 80, overdiagnoses (OD) of non-EAC cases, positive predictive value (PPV), and the risk of cancer occurring before the screening age recommendations (see Supplementary Methods 3.4 for risk equation) for US persons, all races, stratified by sex and GERD symptom status. Abbreviation: gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD)