. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Apr 15.

Published in final edited form as: Stat Methods Med Res. 2021 Apr 7;30(5):1373–1392. doi: 10.1177/0962280221997507

Table 3.

Posterior estimates for the transition probabilities during three months, 6months and a one year cycle for the three-state model using partially observed data from the adult ART patients in the Zimbabwe national ART data after a year of follow-up.

	3 months		6 months		1 year
	BE	MLE	BE	MLE	BE	MLE
Parameter	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)	Transition rate estimate (95% CI)
π₁₁ (t)	0.9765 (0.973 to 0.980)	0.976877 (0.974 to 0.980)	0.9530 (0.945 to 0.960)	0.95447 (0.948 to 0.960)	0.9103 (0.898 to 0.922)	0.91170 (0.899 to 0.922)
π₁₂ (t)	0.0155 (0.013 to 0.018)	0.015278 (0.013 to 0.018)	0.0302 (0.026 to 0.036)	0.02992 (0.025 to 0.035)	0.0580 (0.048 to 0.068)	0.05737 (0.049 to 0.067)
π₁₃ (t)	0.0081 (0.006 to 0.010)	0.007845 (0.006 to 0.010)	0.0160 (0.012 to 0.020)	0.01562 (0.012 to 0.020)	0.0318 (0.026 to 0.039)	0.03093 (0.025 to 0.039)
π₂₁ (t)	0.0119 (0.010 to 0.014)	0.011770 (0.010 to 0.014)	0.0231 (0.019 to 0.027)	0.02305 (0.019 to 0.027)	0.0442 (0.037 to 0.052)	0.04419 (0.037 to 0.052)
π₂₂ (t)	0.9810 (0.979 to 0.983)	0.981280 (0.979 to 0.984)	0.9626 (0.958 to 0.967)	0.96309 (0.958 to 0.967)	0.9273 (0.918 to 0.936)	0.92823 (0.918 to 0.936)
π₂₃ (t)	0.0071 (0.006 to 0.009)	0.006951 (0.006 to 0.009)	0.0142 (0.011 to 0.017)	0.01386 (0.011 to 0.017)	0.0285 (0.023 to 0.035)	0.02758 (0.023 to 0.034)

BE-Bayesian estimation; MLE-maximum likelihood estimation, CI-credible/confidence interv