Table 2. Adjusted HRs for incident risks of five major diseases associated with smoking, among urban and rural men.
| Smoking category | Lung cancer | Ischaemic heart disease | Ischaemic stroke | Haemorrhagic stroke | COPD | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of events | HR (95% CI)† | Number of events | HR (95% CI)† | Number of events | HR (95% CI)† | Number of events | HR (95% CI)† | Number of events | HR (95% CI)† | |
| Urban men | ||||||||||
| Never-regular smoker | 242 | 1.00 (0.88, 1.14) | 3,120 | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 3,593 | 1.00 (0.97, 1.03) | 473 | 1.00 (0.91, 1.10) | 463 | 1.00 (0.91, 1.10) |
| Ever-regular smoker | 1,227 | 2.58 (2.24, 2.98) | 7,220 | 1.27 (1.22, 1.33) | 7,286 | 1.14 (1.09, 1.19) | 996 | 1.14 (1.02, 1.28) | 1,576 | 2.26 (2.02, 2.51) |
| Ex-smoker (by choice)‡ | 134 | 1.48 (1.25, 1.76) | 1,139 | 1.10 (1.03, 1.16) | 1,201 | 1.01 (0.96, 1.07) | 152 | 1.01 (0.86, 1.19) | 205 | 1.40 (1.22, 1.61) |
| Regular smoker | 1,093 | 2.87 (2.70, 3.06) | 6,081 | 1.31 (1.28, 1.35) | 6,085 | 1.17 (1.14, 1.20) | 844 | 1.17 (1.09, 1.26) | 1,371 | 2.50 (2.37, 2.64) |
| Ex-smoker (ill health) | 190 | 2.35 (2.03, 2.71) | 1,288 | 1.55 (1.46, 1.63) | 1,162 | 1.16 (1.10, 1.23) | 180 | 1.37 (1.18, 1.58) | 415 | 3.13 (2.84, 3.45) |
| Current smoker | 903 | 3.04 (2.83, 3.26) | 4,793 | 1.26 (1.22, 1.30) | 4,923 | 1.17 (1.13, 1.20) | 664 | 1.12 (1.03, 1.22) | 956 | 2.28 (2.13, 2.44) |
| Age began smoking (years)* | ||||||||||
| 25+ | 306 | 2.23 (1.99, 2.49) | 1,954 | 1.23 (1.18, 1.29) | 2,020 | 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) | 278 | 1.13 (1.01, 1.27) | 436 | 1.95 (1.77, 2.14) |
| 18-24 | 595 | 3.14 (2.89, 3.41) | 3,161 | 1.33 (1.28, 1.38) | 3,141 | 1.18 (1.14, 1.23) | 439 | 1.19 (1.08, 1.31) | 669 | 2.67 (2.47, 2.88) |
| <18 | 192 | 3.64 (3.15, 4.21) | 966 | 1.55 (1.45, 1.65) | 924 | 1.33 (1.25, 1.42) | 127 | 1.19 (0.99, 1.42) | 266 | 3.73 (3.30, 4.22) |
| No. smoked (cig/day)* | ||||||||||
| <15 | 335 | 2.17 (1.94, 2.42) | 2,280 | 1.20 (1.15, 1.25) | 2,337 | 1.09 (1.05, 1.14) | 316 | 1.12 (1.00, 1.25) | 478 | 2.14 (1.95, 2.35) |
| 15-24 | 525 | 3.06 (2.81, 3.34) | 2,722 | 1.33 (1.28, 1.38) | 2,747 | 1.19 (1.15, 1.24) | 387 | 1.18 (1.07, 1.30) | 630 | 2.56 (2.37, 2.77) |
| 25+ | 233 | 4.03 (3.54, 4.59) | 1,079 | 1.65 (1.56, 1.76) | 1,001 | 1.29 (1.21, 1.37) | 141 | 1.26 (1.06, 1.49) | 263 | 3.11 (2.75, 3.51) |
| Rural men | ||||||||||
| Never-regular smoker | 258 | 1.00 (0.88, 1.13) | 2,425 | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 2,612 | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 1,037 | 1.00 (0.94, 1.06) | 1,421 | 1.00 (0.95, 1.05) |
| Ever-regular smoker | 2,215 | 2.23 (1.96, 2.55) | 9,668 | 1.19 (1.14, 1.25) | 9,429 | 1.11 (1.06, 1.16) | 3,649 | 0.99 (0.92, 1.06) | 7,799 | 1.52 (1.44, 1.61) |
| Ex-smoker (by choice)‡ | 137 | 1.56 (1.32, 1.84) | 723 | 1.11 (1.03, 1.20) | 738 | 0.99 (0.92, 1.07) | 271 | 0.95 (0.85, 1.08) | 470 | 1.14 (1.04, 1.25) |
| Regular smoker | 2,078 | 2.30 (2.20, 2.41) | 8,945 | 1.20 (1.18, 1.23) | 8,691 | 1.12 (1.09, 1.14) | 3,378 | 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) | 7,329 | 1.56 (1.52, 1.59) |
| Ex-smoker (ill health) | 219 | 1.97 (1.72, 2.25) | 1,187 | 1.51 (1.42, 1.59) | 1,160 | 1.31 (1.24, 1.39) | 432 | 1.18 (1.08, 1.30) | 1,218 | 2.25 (2.12, 2.38) |
| Current smoker | 1,859 | 2.35 (2.24, 2.47) | 7,758 | 1.16 (1.14, 1.19) | 7,531 | 1.09 (1.07, 1.12) | 2,946 | 0.97 (0.93, 1.00) | 6,111 | 1.46 (1.43, 1.50) |
| Age began smoking (years)* | ||||||||||
| 25+ | 526 | 1.71 (1.57, 1.86) | 2,824 | 1.09 (1.05, 1.14) | 2,802 | 1.06 (1.02, 1.10) | 1,151 | 0.94 (0.89, 1.00) | 1,926 | 1.22 (1.17, 1.28) |
| 18-24 | 1,096 | 2.42 (2.28, 2.57) | 4,459 | 1.22 (1.18, 1.26) | 4,356 | 1.13 (1.09, 1.16) | 1,612 | 0.99 (0.94, 1.04) | 3,744 | 1.65 (1.60, 1.70) |
| <18 | 456 | 3.13 (2.85, 3.43) | 1,662 | 1.37 (1.31, 1.44) | 1,533 | 1.21 (1.15, 1.27) | 615 | 1.09 (1.01, 1.18) | 1,659 | 1.97 (1.87, 2.07) |
| No. smoked (cig/day)* | ||||||||||
| <15 | 524 | 1.70 (1.55, 1.85) | 3,459 | 1.16 (1.12, 1.20) | 3,531 | 1.08 (1.05, 1.12) | 1,420 | 1.04 (0.99, 1.10) | 2,234 | 1.43 (1.37, 1.49) |
| 15-24 | 994 | 2.40 (2.26, 2.56) | 3,798 | 1.20 (1.16, 1.24) | 3,614 | 1.12 (1.09, 1.16) | 1,342 | 0.92 (0.88, 0.98) | 3,313 | 1.61 (1.55, 1.67) |
| 25+ | 560 | 3.27 (3.00, 3.57) | 1,688 | 1.31 (1.25, 1.38) | 1,546 | 1.21 (1.15, 1.28) | 616 | 1.01 (0.93, 1.10) | 1,782 | 1.68 (1.60, 1.76) |
†
All analyses were stratified by study area and 5-year age-at-risk group and adjusted for education and alcohol drinking.
‡
Only include those who had quit voluntarily (i.e. not due to ill health).
*
Include current smokers and ex-smokers who had quit due to ill health.