Table 2. Model comparisons including coefficients for development and external validation.

Model type	Model Predictors of TRS	Coefficients after shrinkage for optimism$	Pooled Development Sample performance statistics	Shrinkage factor	Validation Sample performance statistics	Validation Sample New coefficients after model recalibration	Validation Sample Performance after model recalibration	Calibration plots for external validation
Forced-entry	Intercept Sex Age Black/African-Caribbean ethnicity Asian ethnicity Triglycerides Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) Lymphocyte count	-2.827381 0.286466741 -0.036205346 0.419614174 -0.144147329 0.149214138 0.006713513 0.131215526	C: 0.70 (0.63-0.76) Brier score: 0.07	0.79	C: 0.63 (0.58-0.69) Brier score: 0.08	Lymphocyte coefficient: -0.695404405. Intercept: -1.336220 Slope: 1.0519963	C: 0.67 (0.62-0.73) Brier score: 0.08	Figure 2A and 2B
LASSO-based	Intercept Sex Age Black/African-Caribbean ethnicity Asian ethnicity Triglycerides Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) Lymphocyte count Smoking status Body mass index (BMI) Random plasma glucose Neutrophil count	-2.736365 0.132050 -0.248397 0.304147 -0.002375 0.139795 0.131153 0.060623 0.057593 -0.026467 -0.027369 -0.012826	C: 0.69 (0.63-0.77) Brier score: 0.07	N/A	C: 0.64 (0.58-0.69) Brier score: 0.08	Lymphocyte coefficient: -0.03608036. Intercept: -2.706553 Slope: 1.3102021	C: 0.64 (0.58-0.69) Brier score: 0.08	Figure 2C and 2D

C, C value (95% confidence interval) (see Methods).

^$The coefficients are relative to non-scaled values for forced-entry models, and to scaled and centered values for the LASSO model.