TABLE 3.

Simulation results: Estimated survival probabilities (“Est”) under the “always treated” (S1) and “never treated” (S0) regimes and risk difference (RD) (mean over 1000 simulations) at time $\tau$, with corresponding empirical SD (over 1000 simulations). Corresponding bias in the estimates ($\times {10}^4$), accompanied by the MC error ($\times 100$).

		Time $\tau$
		1	2	3	4	5
MSM‐IPTW: scenario 1
S1	Est (SD)	0.854 (0.021)	0.738 (0.027)	0.644 (0.030)	0.566 (0.031)	0.498 (0.031)
	Bias (MC error)	0.170 (0.066)	0.166 (0.084)	0.229 (0.094)	0.223 (0.097)	0.189 (0.099)
S0	Est (SD)	0.819 (0.015)	0.671 (0.019)	0.547 (0.024)	0.445 (0.029)	0.361 (0.033)
	Bias (MC error)	0.002 (0.047)	0.114 (0.061)	0.100 (0.076)	0.137 (0.091)	0.098 (0.105)
RD	Est (SD)	0.034 (0.026)	0.067 (0.033)	0.097 (0.040)	0.121 (0.044)	0.138 (0.047)
	Bias (MC error)	0.168 (0.082)	0.053 (0.106)	0.129 (0.126)	0.086 (0.139)	0.092 (0.148)
Sequential trials: scenario 1
S1	Est (SD)	0.853 (0.015)	0.736 (0.019)	0.641 (0.022)	0.563 (0.024)	0.496 (0.027)
	Bias (MC error)	0.068 (0.047)	0.010 (0.059)	$-$0.068 (0.068)	$-$0.086 (0.076)	$-$0.037 (0.085)
S0	Est (SD)	0.819 (0.010)	0.669 (0.017)	0.544 (0.025)	0.442 (0.033)	0.359 (0.044)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.043 (0.031)	$-$0.085 (0.054)	$-$0.202 (0.079)	$-$0.191 (0.105)	$-$0.076 (0.140)
RD	Est (SD)	0.034 (0.018)	0.067 (0.027)	0.097 (0.036)	0.121 (0.044)	0.137 (0.055)
	Bias (MC error)	0.111 (0.058)	0.094 (0.085)	0.134 (0.112)	0.105 (0.140)	0.039 (0.173)
MSM‐IPTW: scenario 2
S1	Est (SD)	0.855 (0.049)	0.739 (0.063)	0.648 (0.071)	0.573 (0.072)	0.506 (0.074)
	Bias (MC error)	0.333 (0.154)	0.343 (0.199)	0.569 (0.224)	0.934 (0.227)	0.933 (0.233)
S0	Est (SD)	0.819 (0.012)	0.671 (0.015)	0.547 (0.016)	0.445 (0.018)	0.361 (0.018)
	Bias (MC error)	0.018 (0.039)	0.123 (0.048)	0.133 (0.052)	0.112 (0.055)	0.077 (0.056)
RD	Est (SD)	0.036 (0.050)	0.069 (0.065)	0.100 (0.073)	0.128 (0.075)	0.145 (0.077)
	Bias (MC error)	0.315 (0.159)	0.219 (0.206)	0.436 (0.231)	0.823 (0.237)	0.856 (0.243)
Sequential trials: scenario 2
S1	Est (SD)	0.852 (0.026)	0.735 (0.036)	0.640 (0.042)	0.564 (0.048)	0.498 (0.056)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.032 (0.083)	$-$0.125 (0.112)	$-$0.162 (0.132)	0.038 (0.150)	0.195 (0.178)
S0	Est (SD)	0.819 (0.007)	0.669 (0.012)	0.544 (0.017)	0.442 (0.020)	0.359 (0.024)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.030 (0.023)	$-$0.088 (0.039)	$-$0.184 (0.052)	$-$0.189 (0.063)	$-$0.128 (0.075)
RD	Est (SD)	0.033 (0.027)	0.066 (0.038)	0.096 (0.046)	0.122 (0.053)	0.140 (0.062)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.001 (0.086)	$-$0.036 (0.122)	0.022 (0.145)	0.227 (0.168)	0.324 (0.197)
MSM‐IPTW: scenario 3
S1	Est (SD)	0.852 (0.023)	0.736 (0.034)	0.642 (0.042)	0.564 (0.046)	0.497 (0.049)
	Bias (MC error)	0.013 (0.074)	0.044 (0.108)	$-$0.007 (0.134)	0.005 (0.146)	0.001 (0.154)
S0	Est (SD)	0.820 (0.018)	0.674 (0.040)	0.558 (0.056)	0.460 (0.067)	0.382 (0.072)
	Bias (MC error)	0.100 (0.056)	0.478 (0.125)	1.165 (0.178)	1.631 (0.213)	2.181 (0.229)
RD	Est (SD)	0.032 (0.033)	0.062 (0.065)	0.084 (0.086)	0.104 (0.097)	0.115 (0.103)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.087 (0.106)	$-$0.434 (0.204)	$-$1.172 (0.271)	$-$1.626 (0.307)	$-$2.180 (0.327)
Sequential trials: scenario 3
S1	Est (SD)	0.853 (0.017)	0.736 (0.027)	0.642 (0.044)	0.564 (0.060)	0.497 (0.060)
	Bias (MC error)	0.046 (0.053)	0.005 (0.087)	0.021 (0.138)	0.079 (0.189)	0.077 (0.191)
S0	Est (SD)	0.819 (0.013)	0.672 (0.036)	0.554 (0.063)	0.458 (0.080)	0.383 (0.091)
	Bias (MC error)	$-$0.005 (0.041)	0.215 (0.115)	0.775 (0.198)	1.427 (0.254)	2.344 (0.287)
RD	Est (SD)	0.033 (0.024)	0.064 (0.058)	0.088 (0.098)	0.106 (0.126)	0.114 (0.133)
	Bias (MC error)	0.051 (0.076)	$-$0.211 (0.182)	$-$0.754 (0.309)	$-$1.347 (0.399)	$-$2.267 (0.420)