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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2023 Sep 15.
Published in final edited form as: Nat Med. 2020 Oct 14;26(12):1919–1928. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0

Fig. 4. Weekly percent increase in mortality from any cause as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic by country.

Fig. 4

The turquoise shading (placed at the start of each week) shows the credible intervals around the median prediction, from 5% (dark) to 95% (light) in 10% increments, obtained from 16,000 posterior draws as described in the Methods. The background shading indicates the magnitude of the weekly increase that was detectable with a posterior probability of at least 90%. Extended Data Fig. 4 shows results by age group.