Extended Data Fig. 1. Weekly number of deaths from January 2020 through May 2020, by age group.

The points show reported deaths. The grey-shaded areas show the predictions of how many deaths would have been expected from mid-February had Covid-19 pandemic not taken place. The turquoise shading shows the credible intervals around the median prediction, from 5% (dark) to 95% (light) in 10% increments, obtained from 16,000 posterior draws as described in Methods.