Table 3. LLPV2 (recalibrated) performance in CPRD showing the proportion of people with lung cancer that might have been screened at selected thresholds.
| LLPv2 (recalibrated) performance in CPRD | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corresponding risk threshold | <1% (n=357 595) | 1%–<2.5% (n=140 646) | 2.5%–<5% (n=174 985) | ≥5% (n=168 883) | ||||
| Non-lung cancer cases | Lung cancer cases | Non-lung cance cases | Lung cancer cases | Non-lung cancer cases | Lung cancer cases | Non-lung cancer cases | Lung cancer cases | |
| Number of patients (%) | 356 485 (99.7) | 1110 (0.3) | 139 672 (99.3) | 974 (0.7) | 173 057 (98.9) | 1928 (1.1) | 165 772 (98.2) | 3111 (1.8) |
| Mean predicted risk | 0.56% | 0.64% | 1.62% | 1.69% | 3.64% | 3.71% | 7.10% | 7.50% |
| Proportion of total lung cancer | 15.6% | 13.7% | 27.1% | 43.7% | ||||
| Need to screen to detect one lung cancer case | 322 | 144 | 91 | 54 | ||||
| Sensitivity above threshold (95% CI) | 84.4 (83.6 to 85.3) | 70.7 (69.7 to 71.8) | 43.7 (42.5 to 44.8) | – | ||||
| Specificity (95% CI) | 42.7 (42.6 to 42.8) | 59.4 (59.3 to 59.5) | 80.1 (80.1 to 80.2) | – | ||||
| Positive predictive value (95% CI) | 1.24 (1.23 to 1.25) | 1.47 (1.44 to 1.49) | 1.84 (1.79 to 1.89) | – | ||||
| Negative predictive value (95% CI) | 99.7 (99.7 to 99.7) | 99.6 (99.6 to 99.6) | 99.4 (99.4 to 99.4) | – | ||||
| Sex | ||||||||
| Females (%) | 178 059 (50) | 598 (54) | 55 285 (40) | 454 (47) | 78 656 (45) | 923 (48) | 61 255 (37) | 1085 (35) |
| Males (%) | 178 426 (50 | 512 (46) | 84 387 (60) | 520 (53) | 94 401 (55) | 1005 (52) | 104 517 (63) | 2026 (65) |
| Age (95% CI) | 55 (52–58) | 56 (53–58) | 65 (61–71) | 66 (61–70) | 65 (62–68) | 65 (63–68) | 73 (71–77) | 74 (71–77) |
| Pneumonia | ||||||||
| No (%) | 352 184 (98.8) | 1097 (98.8) | 133 567 (95.6) | 935 (96) | 169 776 (98.1) | 1887 (97.9) | 155 717 (93.9) | 2870 (92.2) |
| Yes (%) | 4301 (1.2) | 13 (1.2) | 6105 (4.4) | 39 (4) | 3281 (1.9) | 41 (2.1) | 10 055 (6.1) | 241 (7.8) |
| Personal history | ||||||||
| No (%) | 356 463 (99.9) | 1110 (100) | 139 636 (99.9) | 974 (100) | 173 026 (99.9) | 1925 (99.8) | 165 645 (99.9) | 3107 (99.9) |
| Yes (%) | 22 (0.01) | 0 (0) | 36 (0.03) | 0 (0) | 31 (0.02) | 3 (0.2) | 127 (0.1) | 4 (0.1) |
| Family history | ||||||||
| No (%) | 356 094 (99.9) | 1109 (99.9) | 139 513 (99.9) | 973 (99.9) | 172 917 (99.9) | 1924 (99.8) | 165 627 (99.9) | 3109 (99.9) |
| Yes (%) | 391 (0.1) | 1 (0.1) | 159 (0.1) | 1 (0.1) | 140 (0.1) | 4 (0.2) | 145 (0.1) | 2 (0.1) |
| Asbestosis | ||||||||
| No (%) | 356 270 (99.9) | 1110 (100) | 139 036 (99.5) | 973 (99.9) | 172 489 (99.7) | 1916 (99.4) | 163 939 (98.9) | 3066 (98.6) |
| Yes (%) | 215 (0.1) | 0 (0) | 636 (0.5) | 1 (0.1) | 568 (0.3) | 12 (0.6) | 1833 (1.1) | 45 (1.4) |
| Smoking duration (%) | ||||||||
| ≤20 years | 90 384 (25) | 164 (15) | 22 885 (16) | 94 (10) | 494 (0.3) | 7 (0.4) | 7 (0) | 1 (0) |
| >20–≤40 years | 266 101 (75) | 946 (85) | 100 929 (72) | 749 (77) | 23 906 (14) | 269 (14) | 1153 (1) | 21 1) |
| >40–≤60 years | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 15 858 (12) | 131 (13) | 148 657 (86) | 1652 (86) | 156 131 (94) | 2870 (92) |
| >60 years | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 8481 (5) | 219 (7) |
.CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; LLPV2, Liverpool Lung Project V.2; n, number of participants.