Table 2. Minimum adequate models to predict carbon gains and losses in African and Amazonian tropical forests. These are the best ranked gains and loss models.

Where continental values differ, those for Africa are reported first, followed by Amazonian values.

Carbon gains, Mg C ha-1 yr-1
Predictor variable	Parameter value	Standard Error	t-value	p-value	2000-2015 change in gains (%) *
(Intercept)	5.255 | 5.395	0.603 | 0.614	8.7 | 8.8	<0.001	-
CO2-change (ppm yr-1) †	0.238	0.096	2.5	0.013	3.69% | 3.71%
MAT (°C)	-0.083	0.025	-3.3	0.001	-0.67% | -1.07%
MAT-change (°C yr-1) ‡	-1.243	0.233	-5.3	<0.001	0.58% | 0.00% §
MCWD (mm x1000)	-0.405 | -1.391	0.381 | 0.24	-1.1 | -5.8	0.289 | <0.001	-0.52% | -2.73%
WD (g cm-3)	-1.295	0.530	-2.4	0.015	0.05% | 0.00%
Carbon losses, Mg C ha-1 yr-1 ║
Predictor variable	Parameter value	Standard Error	t-value	p-value	2000-2015 change in losses (%) *
(Intercept)	1.216	0.086	14.1	<0.001	-
CO2-change (ppm yr-1) †	0.130	0.059	2.2	0.026	11.38% | 14.81%
MAT-change (°C yr-1)	0.766	0.162	4.7	<0.001	-1.56% | 0.00%
MCWD (mm x10000) ‡	-0.232	0.107	-2.2	0.030	-1.21% | -2.42%
CRT (yr)	-0.003	0.001	-6.1	<0.001	-0.57% | 1.39%

^*The 2000-2015 change in gains/losses for each predictor variable was estimated allowing only the focal predictor to vary; this change was then expressed as a percentage of the annual gains/losses in the year 2000 allowing all predictors to vary.

^†Change over the past 56 years.

^‡Change over the past 5 years.

^§A positive value for Africa indicates that MAT increased more slowly over 2000-2015 compared to the mean increase over 1983-2015, therefore contributing to an increase in gains; a zero value fpr Amazonia indicates that the rate of MAT increase was the same over 2000-2015 as the mean increase over 1983-2015.

^║Carbon loss values were normalized via power-law transformation, λ= 0.361.