Extended Data Table 1.

Models to predict carbon gains and losses in African and Amazonian tropical forests, including only environmental variables, showing long-term trends that impact theory-driven models of photosynthesis and respiration. Significant values in bold.

Carbon gains, Mg C ha-1 yr-1
Predictor variable	Parameter value	Standard Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	4.694	0.739	6.354	0.000
CO2 (ppm)	0.005	0.001	3.196	0.001
MAT (°C)	-0.143	0.021	-6.844	0.000
MCWD (mm x1000)	-1.232	0.210	-5.878	0.000
Carbon losses, Mg C ha-1 yr-1 *
Predictor variable	Parameter value	Standard Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	0.926	1.854	0.500	0.617
CO2 (ppm)	0.004	0.004	0.947	0.344
MAT (°C)	-0.011	0.044	-0.249	0.804
MCWD (mm x1000)	-0.498	0.505	-0.985	0.325

^*Carbon loss values were normalized via power-law transformation, λ= 0.361.