Table 3.
Worsening of non-invasive fibrosis markers by alcohol intake category among 58,927 participants with NAFLD and low probability of advanced fibrosis based on FIB-4, NFS and APRI at baseline
| Categories of alcohol intake | Person-years (PY) | Incident cases | Incidence density (per 103 PY) | Cumulative Incidence (per 103 person) |
Age- and sex-adjusted HR (95% CI) | Multivariable-adjusted HR* (95% CI) |
HR (95% CI)† in model using time-dependent variables | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 5-Year | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||
| Based on FIB-4 | ||||||||||
| Non-drinkers | 85,160.1 | 1,577 | 18.5 | 19.8 | 67.6 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Light drinkers | 134,238.9 | 1,792 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 45.1 | 1.10 (1.02–1.19) | 1.06 (0.98–1.16) | 1.09 (1.00–1.19) | 0.91 (0.83–0.99) | |
| Moderate drinkers | 128,526.4 | 2,261 | 17.6 | 16.6 | 59.2 | 1.35 (1.26–1.46) | 1.29 (1.18–1.40) | 1.32 (1.21–1.44) | 1.19 (1.09–1.29) | |
| P for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||
| Based on NFS | ||||||||||
| Non-drinkers | 81,938.9 | 2,350 | 28.7 | 31.9 | 101.4 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Light drinkers | 129,248.1 | 3,122 | 24.2 | 27.9 | 85.7 | 1.08 (1.02–1.15) | 1.09 (1.02–1.16) | 1.09 (1.02–1.17) | 0.96 (0.90–1.03) | |
| Moderate drinkers | 122,233.9 | 3.953 | 32.3 | 37.3 | 113.0 | 1.36 (1.29–1.45) | 1.31 (1.23–1.40) | 1.31 (1.23–1.41) | 1.26 (1.18–1.34) | |
| P for trend | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | ||||||
| Based on APRI | ||||||||||
| Non-drinkers | 83,600.0 | 1,547 | 18.5 | 22.2 | 77.2 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | |
| Light drinkers | 131,017.9 | 2,434 | 18.6 | 25.5 | 83.8 | 1.05 (0.98–1.13) | 0.99 (0.91–1.07) | 1.00 (0.92–1.08) | 0.96 (0.90–1.03) | |
| Moderate drinkers | 125,943.0 | 2,667 | 21.2 | 30.0 | 95.5 | 1.22 (1.14–1.31) | 1.09 (1.01–1.19) | 1.10 (1.02–1.20) | 1.24 (1.16–1.33) | |
| P for trend | <0.001 | 0.007 | 0.005 | <0.001 | ||||||
NAFLD, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; FIB-4, fibrosis-4; NFS, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score; APRI, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Estimated from parametric proportional hazard models. Multivariable model 1 was adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), center, year of screening exam, smoking status, regular exercise, education level, history of diabetes, medication for diabetes, history of hypertension, medication for diabetes and medication for dyslipidemia; model 2: model 1 plus adjustment for Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Among 56,545 participants with HOMA-IR and hsCRP measurements.
Estimated from parametric proportional hazard models with alcohol intake, smoking status, regular exercise, diabetes, hypertension and BMI as a time-dependent categorical variables and baseline age, sex, center, year of screening exam, and education level as time-fixed variables.