Table 3.
Validation of the models for any stage endometriosis and stage III–IV endometriosis.
| Model | Any stage endometriosis | Stage III–IV endometriosis | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | BMI, Cycle length, Parity, Palpable nodularity, Endometrioma diagnosed on TVS, Tubal pathology | Pain, Palpable nodularity, Endometrioma diagnosed on TVS | |||||||
| Patients | Overall population | Subgroup of patients without endometrioma diagnosed by TVS | Overall population | Subgroup of patients without endometrioma diagnosed by TVS | |||||
| Training sample N = 677 | Validation sample N = 339 | Training sample N = 596 | Validation sample N = 299 | Training sample N = 677 | Validation sample N = 339 | Training sample N = 596 | Validation sample N = 299 | ||
| Discrimination | AUC (95% CI) | 0.780 (0.746–0.814) | 0.750 (0.699–0.801) | 0.726 (0.686–0.766) | 0.694 (0.635–0.753) | 0.833 (0.789–0.877) | 0.793 (0.725–0.860) | 0.642 (0.572–0.711) | 0.564 (0.472–0.656) |
| P-value* | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.18 | |||||
| Calibration | P-value of unreliability index | 1.0 | 0.094 | 0.99 | 0.10 | 1.0 | 0.27 | 1.0 | 0.27 |
| E aver | 1.2% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 6.4% | 0.28% | 2.8% | NA | NA | |
| E max | 1.0*10−7% | 8.3% | 0.40% | 8.6% | 5.4*10−7% | 10.7% | 0.85% | 37.2% | |
*
For AUC comparison. AUC, area under the ROC curve; CI, confidence interval; E, difference in predicted probability and observed frequencies; E aver, average error. E max, maximal error.