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. 2020 Nov 5;10:19095. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-76003-7

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Markov chain transition probabilities over two time periods, approximately six months apart by HIV status. Arrow weights are proportional to the maximum likelihood estimate of the transition probability between CSTs at the baseline and follow up visits. Node sizes scale with the number of women in each CST. Numeric transition probabilities are shown on arrows for transition probabilities > 0.30. Markov chain schematic transitions were modelled using the markovchain package in R⁶⁷.