Table 5.

Temporally lagged weather variables and correlation with Aedes’ life cycle

Development Stage	Range (days)*	Total lag (weeks)†	Variable	Expected relation	Rationale	Primary sources
Larval/pupa development (vector grows in water)	10–21	3–8	RainT	Positive	More total rain produces more stagnant pools; promotes larval development	38, 39
			RainD	Positive	More frequent rain produces more stagnant pools; promotes larval development	40, 41
			Tavg	Positive	Warmer temperatures promote larval development	42, 43
			DTRmax	Negative	Smaller ranges imply fewer hours with cold temperatures; greater larval survival	20, 44
			RHrng	Negative	Smaller ranges imply fewer dry days; stagnant pools quickly evaporate	20, 45
			WarmD	Positive	More warmer days promote greater larval densities	44, 46
			CoolD	Negative	Fewer cold days promote greater larval survival	44, 46
Gonotrophic cycle (vectors feed on humans)	3–7	2–5	RainT	Negative	Rainfall tends to coincide with cooler temperatures; less vector feeding	20, 47
			RainD	Negative	Rainfall tends to coincide with cooler temperatures; less vector feeding	20, 47
			Tavg	Positive	Vector feeding more frequent at warmer temperatures	48, 49
			DTRmax	Negative	Vector feeding more frequent at warmer temperatures; smaller DTRmax implies fewer cold hours	20, 42
			RHrng	Positive	Vector feeding more frequent during dry periods; larger RHrng implies more dry days	20, 45
			WarmD	Positive	Vector feeding more frequent at warmer temperatures	50
			CoolD	Negative	Vector feeding more frequent at warmer temperatures; fewer cold hours	50
Extrinsic incubation (virus matures in vector)	7–15	1–4	RainT	Unknown	No known link between rainfall and extrinsic incubation	N/A
			RainD	Unknown	No known link between rainfall and extrinsic incubation	N/A
			Tavg	Positive	Viral development more rapid at warmer temperatures	48, 51
			DTRmax	Negative	Viral development more rapid at warmer temperatures; smaller DTRmax implies fewer cold hours	50
			RHrng	Positive	Viral development more rapid in humid environments; smaller RHrng implies fewer dry days	52, 53
			WarmD	Positive	Viral development more rapid at warmer temperatures	50
			CoolD	Negative	Viral development more rapid at warmer temperatures; fewer cold hours	50
Intrinsic incubation (virus matures in humans)	1–12	0–2	N/A	N/A	No known link between weather and intrinsic incubation	N/A
Dengue reported (laboratory confirmation)	–	–	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Total	21–55	0–8	–	–	–	–

^*Based on ^{20, 34}.

^†Total lag (weeks before laboratory confirmation): accumulated range for each stage in the vector–dengue transmission cycle.