TABLE 1.
Model Coefficients (Mean and 95% BCI) for Optimal Excess Relative and Excess Absolute Rate Models, Restricted to Unadjusted Weighted Colon Dose ≤ 3 Gya
| Cancer/ circulatory disease mortality end point |
Relative rate model | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| κ1 [Sex]b (95% BCI) |
κ2 [age at exposure/10] (95% BCI) |
κ3 [time since exposure/10] (95% BCI) |
|
| Solid cancer | −0.90 (−1.35, −0.49) | −0.53 (−0.71, −0.36) | −0.20 (−0.35, −0.04) |
| Lung cancer | −1.30 (−2.50, −0.36) | −0.16 (−0.53, 0.18) | −0.12 (−0.46, 0.25) |
| Stomach cancer | −25.42 (−70.64, −2.04) | −0.58 (−1.06, −0.15) | −0.15 (−0.53, 0.20) |
| Breast cancer | −21.42 (−68.75, 3.69) | −0.70 (−1.34, −0.20) | −0.12 (−0.61, 0.31) |
| All solid cancer apart from lung, stomach, breast | −0.56 (−1.14, −0.01) | −0.72 (−1.02, −0.45) | −0.38 (−0.61, −0.15) |
| Circulatory disease | −24.75 (−70.64, −0.56) | −0.59 (−1.99, 0.24) | −0.20 (−1.20, 0.59) |
| Absolute rate model | |||
|
κ1 [Sex]b (95% BCI) |
κ2 [age at exposure/10] (95% BCI) |
κ3 [time since exposure/10] (95% BCI) |
|
| Solid cancer | −0.38 (−0.89, 0.07) | 0.35 (0.19, 0.49) | 0.63 (0.50, 0.76) |
| Lung cancer | −5.00 (−47.62, 0.75) | 0.70 (0.42, 0.96) | 0.97 (0.67, 1.30) |
| Stomach cancer | −24.68 (−71.24, −1.00) | 0.37 (−0.05, 0.73) | 0.32 (0.03, 0.61) |
| Breast cancer | −21.46 (−67.82, −2.13) | −0.15 (−0.50, 0.15) | 0.58 (0.34, 0.86) |
| All solid cancer apart from lung, stomach, breast | −0.09 (−0.71, 0.47) | 0.25 (0.03, 0.46) | 0.59 (0.41, 0.78) |
| Circulatory disease | −23.22 (−70.76, 0.40) | 0.40 (−1.07, 1.42) | 0.54 (−0.56, 1.49) |
| Relative rate model | |||
|
κ1 [ln[age at exposure/20] (95% BCI) |
κ2 [ln[attained age/50]] (95% BCI) |
||
| Leukemia | −0.05 (−0.49, 0.51) | −1.67 (−2.66, −0.72) | |
| Absolute rate model | |||
|
κ1 [Sex]c (95% BCI) |
κ2 [ln[time since exposure/30]] (95% BCI) |
||
| Leukemia | 0.52 (0.05, 1.04) | −0.45 (−0.85, −0.87) | |
| Relative rate model | |||
|
D [dose (Gy)] (95% BCI) |
D2 [dose2 (Gy2)] (95% BCI) |
Quadratic/linear coefficient ratio (Gy) (95% BCI) |
|
| 0.57 (0.10, 1.06) | 0.60 (0.22, 1.00) | 1.04c (0.17, 6.14) | |
| 1.26 (0.19, 2.82) | 0.28 (−0.42, 1.25) | 0.20c (−0.22, 2.97) | |
| 0.72 (−0.17, 1.78) | 0.24 (−0.41, 0.95) | 0.25c (−6.71, 7.52) | |
| 2.06 (0.60, 4.05) | 0.04 (−0.78, 0.90) | 0.01c (−0.23, 1.11) | |
| 0.05 (−0.53, 0.65) | 0.93 (0.42, 1.52) | 1.19c (−47.13, 52.38) | |
| 0.18 (−0.04, 0.55) | −0.04 (−0.23, 0.11) | −0.28c (−2.26, 2.41) | |
| Absolute rate model | |||
|
D [dose (PY × 104 Gy)] (95% BCI) |
D2 [dose2 (PY × 104 Gy2)] (95% BCI) |
Quadratic/linear coefficient ratio (Gy) (95% BCI) |
|
| 3.64 (−0.26, 7.57) | 6.33 (0.14, 9.43) | 1.60c (−10.24, 20.39) | |
| 0.61 (−0.14, 1.53) | 0.29 (−0.20, 0.93) | 0.38c (−5.98, 7.01) | |
| 1.38 (−0.77, 3.62) | 0.88 (−0.68, 2.68) | 0.35c (−12.55, 13.08) | |
| 1.68 (0.53, 3.00) | 0.00 (−0.61, 0.73) | −0.02c (−74.37, 0.68) | |
| −0.70 (−3.34, 2.07) | 5.03 (1.12, 7.42) | −3.14c (−45.63, 43.83) | |
| 1.00 (−0.73, 3.55) | −0.18 (−1.42, 1.06) | −0.31c (−3.20, 2.98) | |
| Relative rate model | |||
|
D [dose (Gy)] (95% BCI) |
D2 [dose2 (Gy2)] (95% BCI) |
Quadratic/linear coefficient ratio (Gy) (95% BCI) |
|
| 0.87 (−0.45, 2.36) | 2.87 (1.75, 3.87) | 2.45c (−42.43, 56.60) | |
| Absolute rate model | |||
|
D [dose (PY × 104 Gy)] (95% BCI) |
D2 [dose2 (PY × 104 Gy2)] (95% BCI) |
Quadratic/linear coefficient ratio (Gy) (95% BCI) |
|
| 0.48 (−0.14, 1.22) | 1.14 (0.49, 1.90) | 1.88c (−31.30, 31.16) | |
a
For all mortality end points a burn-in of one-half the total Monte Carlo samples was used; for most end points a total of 50,000 Monte Carlo samples were taken, with the exception of leukemia (250,000 for the relative rate model, 200,000 for the absolute rate model), lung cancer (75,000 for the relative rate model), breast cancer (150,000 for the relative rate model) and circulatory disease (100,000 for the relative rate model, 150,000 for the absolute rate model).
b
Adjustment for males relative to females.
c
Median.