TABLE 2.
Population Mortality Risks (Using 2017 Mortality Rates for England and Wales) Predicted by Optimal Excess Relative and Excess Absolute Rate Models, Unadjusted Weighted Colon Dose ≤3 Gya
| Cancer/circulatory disease mortality end point |
Model | Test dose (Gy) | Radiation exposure-induced deaths/Gy (×102) (95% BCI) |
Years life lost/Gy (95% BCI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All solid cancer | Relative rate | 0.01 | 3.57 (0.70, 6.81) | 0.50 (0.10, 0.94) |
| 0.1 | 3.88 (1.17, 6.97) | 0.55 (0.17, 0.96) | ||
| 1 | 6.59 (4.82, 8.46) | 0.96 (0.76, 1.18) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 3.11 (−0.13, 6.51) | 0.43 (−0.02, 0.87) | |
| 0.1 | 3.56 (0.54, 6.78) | 0.49 (0.08, 0.91) | ||
| 1 | 7.51 (5.61, 9.50) | 1.08 (0.85, 1.32) | ||
| Lung cancer | Relative rate | 0.01 | 2.57 (0.40, 5.09) | 0.32 (0.05, 0.62) |
| 0.1 | 2.61 (0.55, 5.02) | 0.33 (0.07, 0.61) | ||
| 1 | 2.99 (1.66, 4.53) | 0.38 (0.23, 0.55) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 1.58 (−0.36, 4.07) | 0.15 (−0.04, 0.36) | |
| 0.1 | 1.65 (−0.17, 4.03) | 0.16 (−0.02, 0.36) | ||
| 1 | 2.25 (0.86, 4.14) | 0.22 (0.09, 0.37) | ||
| Stomach cancer | Relative rate | 0.01 | 0.09 (−0.02, 0.26) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.03) |
| 0.1 | 0.09 (−0.01, 0.26) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.03) | ||
| 1 | 0.11 (0.03, 0.26) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.03) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 0.54 (−0.33, 1.47) | 0.09 (−0.05, 0.23) | |
| 0.1 | 0.58 (−0.23, 1.45) | 0.10 (−0.04, 0.23) | ||
| 1 | 0.90 (0.38, 1.58) | 0.15 (0.07, 0.24) | ||
| Breast cancer | Relative rate | 0.01 | 2.03 (0.49, 4.94) | 0.31 (0.09, 0.62) |
| 0.1 | 2.01 (0.53, 4.80) | 0.31 (0.10, 0.61) | ||
| 1 | 1.87 (0.72, 3.82) | 0.30 (0.16, 0.50) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 0.91 (0.30, 1.76) | 0.14 (0.05, 0.24) | |
| 0.1 | 0.90 (0.32, 1.73) | 0.14 (0.06, 0.23) | ||
| 1 | 0.87 (0.46, 1.50) | 0.14 (0.09, 0.20) | ||
| All solid cancer excluding lung, stomach, breast | Relative rate | 0.01 | 0.22 (−1.56, 2.23) | 0.03 (−0.25, 0.34) |
| 0.1 | 0.48 (−1.17, 2.38) | 0.08 (−0.19, 0.36) | ||
| 1 | 2.93 (1.76, 4.38) | 0.48 (0.32, 0.64) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | −0.52 (−2.75, 1.94) | −0.08 (−0.39, 0.27) | |
| 0.1 | −0.13 (−2.21, 2.21) | −0.02 (−0.32, 0.30) | ||
| 1 | 3.57 (2.15, 5.22) | 0.53 (0.36, 0.71) | ||
| Leukemia | Relative rate | 0.01 | 0.27 (−0.13, 0.71) | 0.06 (−0.02, 0.20) |
| 0.1 | 0.35 (−0.03, 0.78) | 0.07 (0.00, 0.22) | ||
| 1 | 1.14 (0.75, 1.56) | 0.21 (0.13, 0.47) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 0.34 (−0.09, 0.82) | 0.11 (−0.03, 0.26) | |
| 0.1 | 0.41 (0.01, 0.86) | 0.13 (0.00, 0.27) | ||
| 1 | 1.11 (0.83, 1.41) | 0.35 (0.25, 0.46) | ||
| All circulatory disease | Relative rate | 0.01 | 2.84 (−0.22, 17.90) | 0.21 (−0.02, 1.22) |
| 0.1 | 2.24 (−0.17, 13.76) | 0.18 (−0.02, 1.01) | ||
| 1 | 1.28 (0.01, 5.07) | 0.11 (0.00, 0.46) | ||
| Absolute rate | 0.01 | 1.76 (−1.26, 8.01) | 0.17 (−0.13, 0.62) | |
| 0.1 | 1.56 (−1.10, 7.21) | 0.16 (−0.11, 0.57) | ||
| 1 | 1.15 (−0.06, 4.12) | 0.12 (−0.01, 0.35) |
For all end points a burn-in of one-half the total Monte Carlo samples were used; for most end points a total of 50,000 Monte Carlo samples were taken, with the exception of leukemia (250,000 for the relative rate model, 200,000 for the absolute rate model), lung cancer (75,000 for the relative rate model), breast cancer (150,000 for the relative rate model) and circulatory disease (100,000 for the relative rate model, 150,000 for the absolute rate model). The dose used is: (a) weighted colon dose for all solid cancer and all solid cancers apart from lung, stomach and breast; (b) weighted lung dose for lung cancers and circulatory disease; (c) weighted stomach dose for stomach cancer; (d) weighted breast dose for breast cancer; and (e) weighted red bone marrow dose for leukemia.