TABLE 5.
Population Mortality Risks (Using 2017 Mortality Rates for England and Wales) for Solid Cancer, Leukemia and All Circulatory Disease Predicted by Optimal Excess Relative Rate Models, Unadjusted and Untruncated Weighted Colon Dose ≤2 Gy, ≤3 Gy or ≤4 Gy, Both Sexesa
| Cancer/circulatory disease mortality end point |
Unadjusted, untruncated colon dose limit used for analysis |
Test dose (Gy) |
Excess deaths/Gy (×102) (95% BCI) |
Radiation-induced deaths/Gy (×102) (95% BCI) |
Years life lost/Gy (95% BCI) |
Years life lost/radiation induced death (years) (95% BCI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All solid cancer | ≤2 Gy | 0.01 | 2.62 (−0.19, 5.68) | 3.17 (−0.24, 6.85) | 0.44 (−0.04, 0.93) | 14.18 (12.34, 16.23) |
| 0.1 | 2.95 (0.33, 5.82) | 3.57 (0.41, 7.01) | 0.50 (0.06, 0.95) | 14.20 (12.37, 16.24) | ||
| 1 | 5.80 (4.13, 7.68) | 7.03 (5.03, 9.28) | 1.02 (0.79, 1.27) | 14.67 (12.97, 16.62) | ||
| ≤3 Gy | 0.01 | 2.95 (0.58, 5.66) | 3.57 (0.70, 6.81) | 0.50 (0.10, 0.94) | 14.25 (12.63, 16.15) | |
| 0.1 | 3.21 (0.97, 5.79) | 3.88 (1.17, 6.97) | 0.55 (0.17, 0.96) | 14.28 (12.66, 16.16) | ||
| 1 | 5.44 (3.96, 7.01) | 6.59 (4.82, 8.46) | 0.96 (0.76, 1.18) | 14.69 (13.18, 16.51) | ||
| ≤4 Gy | 0.01 | 5.08 (2.63, 7.90) | 6.14 (3.19, 9.52) | 0.86 (0.46, 1.28) | 14.07 (12.48, 15.92) | |
| 0.1 | 5.13 (2.82, 7.79) | 6.20 (3.41, 9.40) | 0.87 (0.50, 1.26) | 14.10 (12.53, 15.94) | ||
| 1 | 5.54 (4.07, 7.15) | 6.72 (4.96, 8.64) | 0.97 (0.77, 1.19) | 14.52 (13.04, 16.30) | ||
| Leukemia | ≤2 Gy | 0.01 | 0.07 (−0.28, 0.45) | 0.07 (−0.28, 0.45) | 0.02 (−0.04, 0.10) | 19.42 (12.90, 35.16) |
| 0.1 | 0.17 (−0.15, 0.54) | 0.17 (−0.15, 0.55) | 0.03 (−0.02, 0.12) | 19.38 (12.90, 35.47) | ||
| 1 | 1.12 (0.70, 1.78) | 1.12 (0.70, 1.79) | 0.21 (0.13, 0.40) | 19.54 (13.01, 35.14) | ||
| ≤3 Gy | 0.01 | 0.27 (−0.13, 0.71) | 0.27 (−0.13, 0.71) | 0.06 (−0.02, 0.20) | 18.81 (12.50, 37.60) | |
| 0.1 | 0.35 (−0.03, 0.77) | 0.35 (−0.03, 0.78) | 0.07 (0.00, 0.22) | 18.81 (12.50, 38.13) | ||
| 1 | 1.13 (0.75, 1.56) | 1.14 (0.75, 1.56) | 0.21 (0.13, 0.47) | 18.84 (12.55, 37.65) | ||
| ≤4 Gy | 0.01 | 0.44 (0.03, 0.97) | 0.44 (0.03, 0.98) | 0.09 (0.00, 0.22) | 20.00 (13.15, 37.47) | |
| 0.1 | 0.50 (0.09, 1.01) | 0.50 (0.09, 1.02) | 0.10 (0.02, 0.24) | 20.00 (13.15, 37.46) | ||
| 1 | 1.04 (0.68, 1.50) | 1.04 (0.69, 1.50) | 0.21 (0.12, 0.39) | 20.00 (13.21, 37.08) | ||
| All circulatory disease | ≤2 Gy | 0.01 | 2.79 (−0.61, 23.56) | 3.79 (−0.83, 32.12) | 0.28 (−0.07, 2.19) | 10.82 (6.34, 28.62) |
| 0.1 | 2.00 (−0.51, 15.73) | 2.71 (−0.69, 21.44) | 0.22 (−0.06, 1.62) | 10.90 (6.57, 28.62) | ||
| 1 | 0.92 (−0.02, 4.01) | 1.25 (−0.03, 5.46) | 0.11 (−0.01, 0.49) | 11.09 (6.79, 28.27) | ||
| ≤3 Gy | 0.01 | 2.09 (−0.16, 13.19) | 2.84 (−0.22, 17.90) | 0.21 (−0.02, 1.22) | 10.38 (6.24, 24.89) | |
| 0.1 | 1.66 (−0.12, 10.12) | 2.24 (−0.17, 13.76) | 0.18 (−0.02, 1.01) | 10.43 (6.47, 24.89) | ||
| 1 | 0.94 (0.01, 3.74) | 1.28 (0.01, 5.07) | 0.11 (0.00, 0.46) | 10.65 (6.72, 24.89) | ||
| ≤4 Gy | 0.01 | 1.16 (−0.42, 5.99) | 1.57 (−0.56, 8.11) | 0.12 (−0.05, 0.56) | 9.47 (6.35, 17.04) | |
| 0.1 | 1.00 (−0.35, 5.26) | 1.36 (−0.48, 7.11) | 0.11 (−0.04, 0.52) | 9.49 (6.45, 17.04) | ||
| 1 | 0.83 (0.02, 2.71) | 1.12 (0.03, 3.68) | 0.10 (0.00, 0.30) | 9.63 (6.65, 17.08) |
For all end points a burn-in of one half the total Monte Carlo samples were used; for most end points a total of 50,000 Monte Carlo samples were taken, with the exception of leukemia (150,000 for ≤2 Gy, 250,000 for ≤3 Gy, 200,000 for ≤4 Gy), and circulatory disease (150,000 for ≤2 Gy, 100,000 for ≤3 Gy, 80,000 for ≤4 Gy). The dose used is: (a) weighted colon dose for all solid cancer; (b) weighted lung dose for circulatory disease; and (c) weighted red bone marrow dose for leukemia.