Table 3.
Heterogeneity in Effects of Shelter-in-Place Orders on COVID-19 Case Growth, by Urbanicity and Population Density
| Urbanicity |
Population Density |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| High | Low | High | Low | |
| Early-Adopting SIPO Counties | ||||
| 0-4 Days After | −0.161⁎⁎⁎ | −0.052 | −0.162⁎⁎⁎ | −0.014 |
| (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.043) | (0.053) | |
| 5-8 Days After | −0.200⁎⁎⁎ | −0.013 | −0.201⁎⁎⁎ | −0.004 |
| (0.057) | (0.051) | (0.058) | (0.047) | |
| 9-18 Days After | −0.219⁎⁎⁎ | −0.060 | −0.223⁎⁎⁎ | −0.035 |
| (0.070) | (0.060) | (0.072) | (0.061) | |
| >18 Days After | −0.259⁎⁎⁎ | −0.078 | −0.264⁎⁎⁎ | −0.061 |
| (0.067) | (0.070) | (0.068) | (0.070) | |
| Late-Adopting SIPO Counties | ||||
| 0-4 Days After | −0.040 | −0.009 | −0.047 | −0.003 |
| (0.057) | (0.048) | (0.060) | (0.049) | |
| 5-8 Days After | −0.132⁎⁎ | −0.029 | −0.144⁎⁎ | −0.031 |
| (0.062) | (0.055) | (0.062) | (0.056) | |
| 9-18 Days After | −0.184⁎⁎⁎ | −0.016 | −0.190⁎⁎⁎ | −0.032 |
| (0.055) | (0.055) | (0.056) | (0.068) | |
| >18 Days After | −0.263⁎⁎⁎ | −0.010 | −0.268⁎⁎⁎ | −0.034 |
| (0.064) | (0.062) | (0.065) | (0.093) | |
| Non-Adopting Counties Bound by State SIPO | ||||
| 0-4 Days After | −0.040 | −0.019 | −0.061 | −0.013 |
| (0.054) | (0.039) | (0.059) | (0.042) | |
| 5-8 Days After | −0.001 | 0.041 | −0.015 | 0.043 |
| (0.077) | (0.047) | (0.082) | (0.052) | |
| 9-18 Days After | 0.075 | 0.040 | 0.073 | 0.044 |
| (0.117) | (0.063) | (0.123) | (0.068) | |
| >18 Days After | 0.203 | 0.107 | 0.222 | 0.108 |
| (0.194) | (0.090) | (0.203) | (0.097) | |
| N | 12954 | 12954 | 12954 | 12954 |
Notes: Estimates are obtained using weighted least squares regression. The model includes the following controls: an indicator for whether the county had issued a non-essential business closure order, an indicator for whether the county had issued an emergency declaration, the average temperature (in degrees Celsius) in the county, an indicator for whether measurable precipitation fell in the county, county fixed effects, day fixed effects, and a county-specific time trend. Standard errors, clustered at the county-level, are reported in parenthesis. Counties that adopted SIPO on March 26 or before are defined as Early-Adopting SIPO Counties, and counties that adopted SIPO between March 27 and April 1 are defined as Late-Adopting SIPO Counties. Counties with urbanicity rate of 75% or higher is defined as High Urbanicity and counties with urbanicity rate of lower than 75% is defined as Low Urbanicity. Counties with population density of 150 people per sq. mile or higher is defined as High Density and counties with population density of lower than 150 people per sq. mile is define as Low Density.
*at 10% level
Significant at 1% level
at 5% level