Table 3.

Predictive performances of various models in all-risk and moderate-risk (FRS: 3–6) groups of Discovery and validation cohorts.

All risk	C-statistic (95% CI)	Accuracy (95% CI)	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)
CT-FRS (Full model)
Discovery	0.828 (0.784–0.872)	79.0 (76.9–81.0)	76.8 (69.0–84.6)	79.4 (76.2–82.6)
Validation	0.804 (0.732–0.877)	68.0 (64.9–71.2)	86.1 (74.8–97.4)	65.3 (59.2–71.3)
CT-FRS (Simplified model)
Discovery	0.825 (0.782–0.868)	78.3 (75.1–81.2)	75.9 (67.9–83.9)	78.7 (75.4–81.9)
Validation	0.807 (0.739–0.875)	62.9 (59.7–66.0)	91.7 (82.6–100.0)	58.5 (52.2–64.8)
FRS
Discovery	0.794 (0.752–0.835)	71.2 (68.1–74.2)	76.8 (69.0–84.6)	70.1 (66.5–73.8)
Validation	0.741 (0.663–0.819)	53.3 (50.1–56.5)	91.7 (82.6–100.0)	47.5 (41.1–53.8)
a-FRS
Discovery	0.792 (0.760–0.821)	74.6 (70.9–78.0)	73.2 (64.0–81.1)	74.9 (71.3–78.3)
Validation	0.716 (0.658–0.768)	57.7 (52.1–63.3)	86.1 (70.5–95.3)	53.4 (46.8–59.9)
Moderate risk	C-statistic (95% CI)	Accuracy (95% CI)	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)
CT-FRS (Full model)
Discovery	0.746 (0.696–0.791)	67.9 (65.8–70.1)	80.5 (70.3–88.4)	64.0 (57.8–69.8)
Validation	0.719 (0.618–0.819)	73.3 (71.0–75.6)	65.5 (45.7–82.1)	75.2 (66.4–82.7)
CT-FRS (Simplified model)
Discovery	0.729 (0.678–0.775)	65.6 (63.5–67.7)	78.0 (67.5–86.4)	61.6 (55.4–67.6)
Validation	0.722 (0.626–0.819)	73.3 (71.0–75.6)	62.1 (42.3–79.3)	76.1 (67.3–83.5)
FRS
Discovery	0.626 (0.573–0.678)	58.2 (57.1–59.4)	69.5 (58.4–79.2)	54.7 (48.4–60.8)
Validation	0.573 (0.455–0.69)	69.9 (68.6–71.1)	37.9 (20.7–57.7)	77.8 (69.2–84.9)
a-FRS
Discovery	0.649 (0.596–0.700)	52.9 (46.4–58.8)	80.5 (70.3–88.4)	44.2 (38.0 - 50.5)
Validation	0.530 (0.445–0.613)	41.1 (35.0–47.4)	82.8 (64.2–94.2)	30.8 (22.6 - 40.0)

Data expressed as fraction or% (95% CI).

Abbreviations: CT-FRS, CT-adjusted Fistula Risk Score (FRS); CI, confidence interval; a-FRS, alternative FRS.