Table 3. Comparing observed survival (Kaplan-Meier) versus predicted (Model FP) for treatment failure at 3 and 5 years according to criteria: circulating tumour cells and bone micrometastasis, in 181 individuals with colon cancer.
| Variable predictor | 3 years | 5 years | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survival observeda % (95% CI) |
Survival predictedb | Survival observeda % (95% CI) | Survival predictedb | ||
| Prognostic group | A CTC and mM negative n = 105 |
98.08 (87.12–99.73) |
99.07 |
98.08 (87.12–99.73) |
97.47 |
| B CTC negative and mM positive n = 36 |
68.42 (42.79–84.39) |
83.97 |
62.72 (37.25–80.22) |
63.42 |
|
| C CTC positive n = 40 |
7.02 (0.51–26.23) |
12.69 |
7.02 (0.51–26.23) |
1.75 |
|
%: percentage; CI = Confidence interval; CTC = Circulating tumour cell; mM = Micrometastasis
a
Observed survival = Kaplan–Meier Survival
b
Predicted survival model FP = average proportion of mean survival for a given group determined on flexible parametric (FP) survival model. The FP model incorporates age (continuous variable), carcinoembryonic antigen (continuous variable), presence of CTC negative and mM positive (dummy variable) and presence of CTC positive (dummy variable) with one degree of freedom for the restricted cubic spline function used for the baseline hazard rate (DF1)