Table 2.
Summary of the prediction models, their stages of development, the cancer sites covered and study designs
| Prediction model | Number and category of descriptors | Stage of development | Study design | Country | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorectal cancer | ||||||
| Bristol-Birmingham equation |
8 Symptoms, Test results |
External validation | Retrospective Case-control | UK |
Derivation cohort: THIN Validation cohort: CAPER |
Marshall 2011 [29] |
| External validation | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands | CEDAR study: Patients referred to endoscopy centres by participating Dutch primary care practices. 2009–2012 | Elias 2017 [27] | ||
| Netherlands model |
3 Symptoms, Patient demographics |
Apparent performance | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands | 290 consecutive patients with rectal bleeding presenting to 83 GPs in Limburg (Netherlands) September 1988 to April 1990Predictors: Questionnaires completed by GPs and patients, and laboratory test results. | Fijten 1995 [28] |
| External validation | Prospective cohort | UK | patients referred from primary care with colorectal symptoms over a 3-yr period to the Leighton Hospital, Crewe, Cheshire, UK | Hodder 2005 [40] | ||
| External validation | Prospective cohort | Netherlands | CEDAR study: Patients referred to endoscopy centres by participating Dutch primary care practices. 2009–2012 | Elias 2017 [27] | ||
| Machine learning algorithm |
Numerous models are reported Patient demographics, Symptoms, Medical history, Test results |
Apparent performance | Case-control | The Netherlands | anonymised electronic records from two GP database systems from the Utrecht region, Netherlands, between 01 and 07-2006 and 31-12-2011 | Kop 2015 [41]; Kop 2016 [32]; Hoogendoorn 2015 [42] |
| Danish model |
2 Patient demographics Symptoms |
Apparent performance | Prospective cohort | Denmark |
Patients presenting to GPs with first episode of rectal bleeding. Study 1: 750 GPs 1989–1991 Study 2: 450 GPs 1991–1992 |
Nørrelund 1996 [31] |
| External validation | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands |
CEDAR study: Patients referred to endoscopy centres by participating Dutch primary care practices. 2009–2012 |
Elias 2017 [27] | ||
| Qcancer |
6 (females) 7 (males) Symptoms, Medical history, Test results |
Internal validation | open Prospective cohort | UK | QResearch database | Hippisley-Cox 2012c [22] |
| External validation | Prospective cohort | UK | THIN database | Collins 2012 [23] | ||
| RAT (2005) |
10 Symptoms, Test results |
Apparent performance | Case-control | UK | Patients attending all 21 general practices in Exeter, Devon, UKCases identified from the cancer registry at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital | Hamilton 2005 [33] |
| External validation | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands |
CEDAR study: Patients referred to endoscopy centres by participating Dutch primary care practices. 2009–2012 |
Elias 2017 [27] | ||
| RAT (2009) |
8 Symptoms, Test results |
Apparent performance | Case-control | UK | THIN database | Hamilton 2009 [43] |
| RAT (bowel) |
10 Symptoms, Test results |
Apparent performance | Case-control | UK | GPRD (currently called the CPRD) | Stapley 2017 [35] |
| Metastatic cancer | ||||||
| RAT |
7 Symptoms, Test results |
Apparent performance | Case-control | UK | Patients attending 11 general practices in Devon, UK | Hamilton 2015 [36] |
| Multiple cancer sites | ||||||
| Qcancer (female) |
7 (uterine) 10 (breast, blood) 11 (ovarian, renal) 12 (cervical) 13 (colorectal, gastro-oesophageal) 14 (pancreatic) 15 (lung) 22 (other cancers) Medical history, Symptoms, Test results, Patient demographics |
Internal validation | Open prospective cohort | UK | QResearch database | Hippisley-Cox 2013 [38] |
| QCancer (male) |
3 (testicular) 8 (renal tract) 12 (colorectal) 13 (gastro-oesophageal) 14 (prostate, blood) 15 (pancreatic) 17 (lung) 20 (other cancers) Medical history, Symptoms, Test results, Patient demographics |
Internal validation | Open prospective cohort | UK | QResearch database | Hippisley-Cox 2013b [37] |
| Muris abdominal complaints model |
5 Symptoms Patient demographics Test results |
Apparent performance | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands | Patients presenting to GPs for new abdominal complaints. 1989 | Muris 1995 [30] |
| (Netherlands) | External validation | Prospective cohort | The Netherlands |
CEDAR study: Patients referred to endoscopy centres by participating Dutch primary care practices. 2009–2012 |
Elias 2017 [27] | |
| Abdominal model, Holtedahl and colleagues (2018) |
4 Symptoms, Patient demographics |
Apparent performance | Prospective cohort | Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Scotland, Belgium, Netherlands | GP records from the participating countries | Holtedahl, 2018 [39] |
Abbreviation: RAT(s) Risk assessment tool(s)