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. 2020 Nov 10;10:19457. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-76257-1

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Short term forecast of the SIRD model taking into account government social distance measures. The solid line corresponds to the last date which the model was estimated, and the dashed line are model predictions. We show the evolution of the cumulative number of infected with 95% confidence interval. We represent the real data as points.