TABLE 4.
Food group | 2030 scenario (sensitivity range2) | Diversity scenario | Acceptability scenario | Food-chain-interdependency scenario (dairy) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Grains and starches | ||||
Rice, wheat, corn, and other | 289 (278, 295) | 299 | 338 | 289 |
Potatoes and cassava | 109 (105, 112) | 109 | 93 | 107 |
Vegetables | ||||
Dark green vegetables | 65 (58, 77) | 68 | 77 | 65 |
Red and orange vegetables | 38 (33, 46) | 41 | 17 | 35 |
Other vegetables | 70 (62, 80) | 91 | 67 | 71 |
Fruits | ||||
All fruit | 99 (94, 105) | 200 | 76 | 95 |
Dairy foods | ||||
Cheese | 3 (0, 10) | 0 | 13 | 1 |
Liquid dairy | 363 (348, 376) | 368 | 272 | 363 |
Butter | 0 (0, 0) | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Protein sources | ||||
Beef and lamb | 0 (0, 0) | 0 | 14 | 8 |
Chicken and other poultry | 11 (5, 17) | 15 | 46 | 5 |
Pork | 10 (5, 19) | 5 | 24 | 7 |
Eggs | 17 (12, 21) | 23 | 17 | 16 |
Fish and shellfish | 48 (42, 57) | 44 | 27 | 47 |
Dry beans, lentils, and peas | 23 (17, 31) | 21 | 5 | 20 |
Soy foods | 5 (1, 9) | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Tree nuts | 55 (44, 59) | 54 | 3 | 58 |
Peanuts | 36 (30, 40) | 23 | 21 | 38 |
Added fats | ||||
Unsaturated oils | 10 (8, 16) | 44 | 21 | 9 |
Sugars and snacks | ||||
Sugar and confectionary | 23 (14, 31) | 4 | 32 | 23 |
Cakes | 31 (24, 36) | 1 | 40 | 27 |
Snacks | 0 (0, 0) | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Other foods | ||||
Condiments and sauces | 9 (5, 13) | 0 | 8 | 6 |
Soups and bouillon | 36 (29, 42) | 12 | 21 | 29 |
Beverages | ||||
Alcoholic beverages | 203 (200, 205) | 200 | 166 | 200 |
Nonalcoholic beverages | 2102 (2097, 2105) | 2093 | 2012 | 2098 |
Soy drink3 | 19 (15, 23) | 22 | 14 | 22 |
Greenhouse gas emissions, kg CO2-eq pppd | 2.04 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 2.04 |
Fossil energy use, MJ pppd | 27.8 | 28.3 | 25.7 | 27.1 |
Land occupation, m2a pppd | 3.11 | 3.33 | 2.76 | 3.15 |
kg CO2-eq, kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent; MJ, megajoules; m2a, square meters annually; pppd, per person per day.
The robustness of the 2030 scenario to uncertainties in the nutritional and environmental data was tested via 1000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Soy drink is a fortified product with vitamin B-12 and calcium.