Table 1. Background characteristics of the 29 studies included in the meta-analysis.
Serial number | Author, Study’s location | Model used to estimate the reproductive number | Time/period for which the reproductive number was estimated | Assumption(s) that was/were considered to estimate the reproductive number | Method used to estimate the reproductive number | Reproductive number (95% CI) | Study-quality assessment (earned score in the scale of 9)++ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Read et al, 2020 [40], China and overseas | Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model | 1st Jan 2020 to 22nd Jan 2020 | Cases daily time increase follows a Poisson distribution | MLE1 | 3.11 (2.39–4.13) | 7 |
2 | Zhang et al., 2020 [31], Diamond Princess Cruise ship, Japan | Epidemic model incorporated by the data | 16th Feb 2020 | The mean serial interval (SI)2 7.5 days, standard deviation (SD) 3.4 days | MLE | 2.28 (2.06–2.52) | 7 |
3 | Liu et al., 2020 [39], China and overseas | No model mentioned | before 23rd Jan 2020 | With generation time (GT)3 of 8.4 days | EGR | 2.90 (2.32–2.52) | 8 |
MLE | 2.92 (2.28–3.67) | ||||||
4 | Majumder & Mandl, 2020 [24], Wuhan, China | Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Removed (SIR) model | Dec 8, 2019, to Jan 26, 2020 | Mean SI 8 (range 6–10) days | SEIR method | 2.55 (2.00–3.10) | 6 |
5 | Riou & Althaus, 2020 [7], China and overseas | No model mentioned | before 18th Jan 2020 | The mean GT varied 7–14 days | Stochastic simulation | 2.2 (1.4–3.8) | 8 |
6 | Tang et al., 2020 [18], China | SEIR model (with isolation, quarantined) | 31 Dec 2019 to 15th Jan 2020 | The incubation period is 7 days | NGMA1 | 6.47 (5.71–7.23) | 9 |
7 | Zhao, Lin et al., 2020 [19], China | Epidemic curve by time-series data | 10th Jan to 24th Jan 2020 | 8-fold reporting rate | EGR | 2.24 (1.96–2.55) | 7 |
2-fold reporting rate | 3.58 (2.89–4.39) | ||||||
0-fold reporting rate | 5.71 (4.24–7.54) | ||||||
8 | Zhao, Musa, et al., 2020 [20], China | Epidemic curve using time series information | 1st Jan to 15th Jan 2020 | Constant screening effort applied in the Wuhan at the same point in time. | EGR | 2.56 (2.49–2.63) | 8 |
9 | Shen et al., 2020 [25], Hubei province, China | SEIR model | 12th Dec 2019 to 22nd Jan 2020 | 5–6 days of incubation | SEIR method1 | 4.71 (4.50–4.92) | 8 |
With intervention and 5–6 days of the incubation period | SEIR method | 2.08 (1.99–2.18) | |||||
10 | Q. Li et al., 2020 [23], Wuhan, China | Epidemiologic time delay distribution | Before 22nd Jan 2020 | Mean SI 8.4 days and SD 3.8 days | Fitted transmission model with zoonotic infection | 2.20 (1.40–3.90) | 8 |
11 | J. T. Wu et al., 2020 [27], Wuhan, China | SEIR model | 31 Dec 2019 to 28th Jan 2020 | Mean SI of 8.4 days | MCMC1 | 2.68 (2.47–2.86) | 9 |
12 | Imai et al., 2020 [15], China | No model mentioned | before 18th Jan 2020 | High level of variability & generation time is 8.4 days | Computational modelling epidemiologic trajectories | 2.60 (1.50–3.50) | 7 |
13 | Kucharski et al., 2020 [38], Wuhan and international travellers | SEIR model | 29th Dec 2019 to 23rd Feb 2020 | Mean incubation period is assumed to be 5.2 days & SD 3.7 days | MLE | 2.35 (1.15–4.77) | 9 |
Intervention with mean incubation period 5.2 days & SD 3.7 days | MLE | 1.05 (0.41–2.39) | |||||
14 | Ki, 2020 [33], South Korea | Epidemic curve fitting | 20 Jan to 10 Feb 2020 | Not Available (NA) | EGR | 0.48 (0.25–0.84) | 9 |
15 | Choi & Ki, 2020 [32], South Korea | SEIR model | 20 Jan to 17 Feb, 2020 | Overseas infections are separated | SEIR method | 0.56 (0.51–0.60) | 9 |
16 | Shim et al., 2020 [34], South Korea | Epidemic curve fitting with the growth model | 20th Jan to 26th Feb 2020 | With mean GT 4.41 days and SD 3.17 days | Simulation | 1.50 (1.40–1.60) | 8 |
17 | Lai et al., 2020 [41], Genetic data from GISAID | Phylogenetic estimation | 4th Feb 2020 | Based on the exponential growth rate of 0.218 per days | EGR | 2.60 (2.10–5.10) | 9 |
The evolutionary rate set to the value of 8.0 × 10–4 subs/site/year | Birth-death skyline estimate | 1.85 (1.37–2.40) | |||||
18 | Jung et al., 2020 [42], Outside of China | No model mentioned | before 24 Jan 2020 | Mean SI 7.5 days and SD 3.4 days | EGR | 3.19 (2.66–3.69) | 8 |
19 | Song et al., 2020 [17], China | SEIR model | 15 to 31 Jan 2020 | Using generation intervals | EGR | 3.74 (3.63–3.87) | 6 |
Using generation intervals | MLE | 3.16 (2.90–3.43) | |||||
The model fitted best 27th Jan | SEIR method | 3.91 (3.71–4.11) | |||||
20 | Sanche et al., 2020 [16], China | SEIR model | 15 to 30 Jan 2020 | with 7–8 days of the SI | EGR | 5.80 (4.40–7.70) | 7 |
with 6–9 days of the SI | 5.7 (3.80–8.90) | ||||||
21 | Mizumoto & Chowell, 2020 [29], Diamond Princes Cruise ship, Japan | No model mentioned | 20 Jan to 18 Feb, 2020 | Mean SI 7.5 days and SD 3.4 | NGMA | 5.8 (0.6–11.0) | 9 |
22 | Kuniya, 2020 [28], Japan | SEIR model | 15 Jan to 29 Feb 2020 | Infected increases at a rate of daily time increment | NGMA | 2.60 (2.40–2.80) | 6 |
23 | Iwata & Miyakoshi, 2020 [43], Outside of China | SEIR model | Not Available (NA) | One infected entered a community of 1000 population. | MCMC | 6.5 (5.6–7.2) | 7 |
24 | Wan et al., 2020 [26], Wuhan, China | SEIR model | 22 Jan to 07 Feb 2020 | 7 days incubation period and 14 days of the infectious period | SEIR method | 1.44 (1.40–1.47) | 8 |
25 | Yuan et al., 2020 [36], Italy | No model mentioned | 23 Feb to 9 Mar 2020 | Mean GT 5.6 days and SD 2.6 days | EGR | 3.27 (3.17–3.38) | 9 |
Yuan et al.,2020 [36], France | 6.32 (5.72–6.99) | ||||||
Yuan et al.,2020 [36], Germany | 6.07 (5.51–6.69) | ||||||
Yuan et al.,2020 [36], Spain | 5.08 (4.51–5.74) | ||||||
26 | Chintalapudi et al., 2020 [44], Italy | No model | 26 Feb to 20 Apr 2020 | Using estimated SI with non-pharmaceutical (NP) interventions | MLE | 1.85 (0.60–2.30) | 8 |
27 | Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | Upto 13 Mar 2020 | Based on the hospitalized data with 7.65 days incubation period | SEIR method | 5.89 (5.86–7.09) | 8 |
Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | Upto 13 Mar 2020 | Based on the detected cases with 10.2 days incubation period | SEIR method | 6.91 (6.95–7.39) | ||
Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | 16 Mar to 15 Apr 2020 | Based on the hospitalized data with 7.65 days incubation period with initial interventions | SEIR method | 1.86 (1.10–2.63) | ||
Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | 16 Mar to 15 Apr 2020 | Based on the detected cases with 10.2 days incubation period with initial interventions | SEIR method | 2.22 (1.92–2.74) | ||
Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | 31 Mar to 12 Apr 2020 | Based on the hospitalized data with 7.65 days incubation period with interventions for full restrictions | SEIR method | 0.48 (0.15–1.17) | ||
Hyafil and Morina, 2020 [37], Spain | SIR model | 31 Mar to 12 Apr 2020 | Based on the detected cases with 10.2 days incubation period with interventions for full restrictions | SEIR method | 0.85 (0.50–1.05) | ||
28 | Zhang et al., 2020 [45], Wuhan, China | SEIQ model | 21 Jan to 20 Feb 2020 | Mean SI 5.2 days and hospital quarantine 12.5 days | MCMC | 5.50 (5.20–5.80) | 7 |
29 | Shao et al., 2020 [46], China | Fiduan-CCDC model | Not specified | Mean SI 7.5 days with SD 3.4 days | SEIR method | 3.32 (3.25–3.40) | 7 |
Note: All studies included in the meta-analysis were summarized in this table. Studies included in the narrative synthesis were summarized in Table 3. 1EGR: Exponential growth rate method; MLE: Maximum Likelihood Method; MCMC: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method; NGMA: Next-Generation Matrix Approach and SEIR method = β/γ method. R: Reproductive number, 95% CI, 95% Confidence Interval.
2Serial interval refers to the duration of time between the onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case.
3Generation time refers to the time interval between successive infections in the chain of transmission.
++Study quality was assessed through the National Institutes of Health (NIH) study quality assessment. Details results are presented in S4 Table in S1 File.