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. 2020 Nov 11;11:5710. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Strong compliance with social distancing (at 80% and above) effectively controls the disease during the suppression period, while lower levels of compliance (at 70% or less) do not succeed for any duration of the suppression. A comparison of social distancing strategies, coupled with case isolation, home quarantine and international travel restrictions, across different compliance levels (70, 80 and 90%). Duration of each social distancing (SD) strategy is set to 91 days (13 weeks), shown as a grey shaded area between days 51 and 142 (the start and end days of SD varied across stochastic runs: for 70% SD the last day of suppression was 141.4 on average; for 80% SD it was 144.2; and for 90% SD it was 141.5, see Source data file). Case isolation, home quarantine and restrictions on international arrivals are set to last until the end of each scenario. Traces include a incidence, b prevalence, c cumulative incidence and d the daily growth rate of cumulative incidence $\dot{C}$ , shown as average (solid) and 95% confidence interval (shaded) profiles, over 20 runs. The 95% confidence intervals are constructed from the bias-corrected bootstrap distributions. The alignment between simulated days and actual dates may slightly differ across separate runs.