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. 2020 Nov 11;11:5710. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — A comparison between actual epidemic curves in Australia (black dots, shown until 28 June 2020), and the primary simulation scenario, using a threshold of 2000 cases (crossed on 24 March 2020) and following 90% of social distancing (SD), coupled with case isolation, home quarantine and international travel restrictions, shown until early July 2020 (yellow colour). Duration of the SD strategy is set to 91 days (13 weeks), shown as a grey shaded area. Case isolation, home quarantine and restrictions on international arrivals are set to last until the end of the scenario. Traces include a incidence, b prevalence, c cumulative incidence and d daily growth rate of cumulative incidence, shown as average (solid), 95% confidence interval (thin solid) profiles, as well as the ensemble of 20 runs (scatter). The 95% confidence intervals are constructed from the bias-corrected bootstrap distributions. The alignment between simulated days and actual dates may slightly differ across separate runs. Data sources: refs. ^64,67.