Fig. 3. Future changes in the return periods of concurrent meteorological drivers of compound flooding.
a Ensemble median projected change (%) of joint return period (or inverse probability) between future (2070–2099) and baseline (1970–2004) climate. Dots with a grey background indicate locations where the projected change is robust, i.e. the ensemble median change lies outside the present-day 95% confidence interval and at least five out of six models agree on the sign of the change. Magenta indicates locations with high model disagreement, i.e. where at least two models project large (lying outside the present-day 95% confidence interval) positive trends and at least two models project large negative trends. b Coastline fraction per 5o of latitude (smoothing spline) with a robust negative change (red dotted line), robust positive change (blue dashed line), and high model disagreement (magenta solid line).