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. 2020 Nov 12;10:18456. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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(a) The contribution to global warming (“energy radiation trapping”) from water vapour, CO₂, CH_4, other GHGes, and surface albedo in Scenario 1. After 2150 the main drivers are water vapour and CO₂, with albedo in the third place. The contribution of CH₄ is much smaller, while the other Montreal and Kyoto gases remain the fourth most important driver of the self-sustained warming and melting of the permafrost. (b) The relative importance of water vapour in global warming in Scenario 1. After 2150 water vapor has approximately the same effect as the sum of all the other GHGes. Historically, from 1850 to 2000, the ratios in the ESCIMO base run fall well within the uncertainty band reported by Cess, Rind, Hansen and Ramanathan and Inamdar cited earlier.