Figure 3.

Sensitivity of the global average temperature to variation in parameter values in ESCIMO, for Scenarios 1 and 2. Sensitivity analysis of 14 randomly chosen uncertain parameters from the model. Sampled independently using Latin-Hypercube sampling from random uniform distributions with ranges of plus minus 10% around their standard value for 200 sensitivity runs. For the parameters see Supplement Table 1. Graph to the left shows Scenario 1 where man-made GHG emissions are phased out by 2100. Graph to the right shows Scenario 2 where man-made GHG emissions are cut to zero in 2020. Parameter variation does change absolute values but does not eliminate the broad pattern of self-sustained melting of the permafrost. The thick curve in the centre of the shaded area is the mean of the 200 runs. The shaded area covers 75% of all runs.